THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CAPITAL BUDGETING TECHNIQUES AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF COMPANIES LISTED AT THE NAIROBI STOCK EXCHANGE. BY MUNYAO A LB ANUS A Research Project Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree o f Master ^ B u sin e ss Administration University of Nairobi 2010 DECLARATION I declare that this research project is my original work and has not been presented for a degree or any other academic award in any institution of learning. Signature Munyao Albanus n / 5 - l / ' 2 O / 0D ate..... ................................. D61/70317/2007 This project has been submitted for examination with my approval as the University supervisor. Signature ... Dale ... t Q . ' / f 4 Dr. Aduda J.O, Lecturer, Department of Finance and Accounting, School o f Business, University of Nairobi. m DEDICATION To my Dear Wife Judith Ngina My Daughters Jenna Muthio and Bella Mukulu May this project inspire you to excel. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT To God be the glory and honor, for His mercies and divine provisions during my entire period of study. My gratitude goes to all my lecturers and all my friends and colleagues, who encouraged, inspired, challenged and in all helped me to bear the burden. Special appreciation goes to the following: To my supervisor Dr.Aduda, thank you very much for your guidance, patience, time and concern in guiding me and shaping my Project to its present state. To my colleagues and friends, Rolnad Chogii, Jacqueline Ngeta, Beatrice Chelangat and David Mbithi for synergy, laughter and encouragement to complete this research. Finally to my dear Wife, Judith and daughters, Jenna and Bella for your unrelenting support and care. Thank you for bearing with the late night studies and absence when you badly needed me. IV TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Cover page................................................................................................................... i Declaration.....................................................................................................................ii Dedication...................................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgement....................................................................................................... iv Table o f Contents...................................................................................................... v List of tables.......................................................................................................... ix List of figures................................................................................................................x Abstract....................................................................................................................... xi CHAPTER ONE................................................................................................................. 1 1.0 INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Background to the study...................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 Capital budgeting techniques.............................................................................. 2 1.1.3 Financial performance.......................................................................................... 3 1.1.4 Nairobi Stock Exchange.................................................................................. 5 1.2 Statement of the Problem........................................................................................5 1.3 Research Objectives................................................................................................ 6 1.4 Significance of the Study...................................................................................... 7 v CHAPTERTWO...................................................................................................................... 8 LITERATURE REM EW 2.0 Introduction........................................................................................................... 8 2.1 Theoretical Framework......................................................................................... 8 2.1.1 The Contingency theory....................................................................................... 8 2.1.2 The Garbage Can theory.....................................................................................9 2.1.3 The Incrementalism theory................................................................................ 10 2.1.4 The Real options theory..................................................................................... 10 2.2 The Evolution of Capital budgeting Practices................................................. 11 2.3 The Capital budgeting Process........................................................................... 12 2.4 Decision Criteria................................................................................................. 15 2.5 Risk Analysis....................................................................................................... 18 2.6 Performance Measures.................................................................................... 19 2.7 Empirical studies on capital budgeting techniques and financial performance............................................................................................ 22 2.8 Summary and conclusions o f empirical studies........................................... 27 VI CHAPTER THREE 29 RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY 3.0 Introduction........................................................................................................ 29 3.1 Research Design...................................................................................................... 29 3.2 Population of the study........................................................................................... 29 3.3 Data collection......................................................................................................... 30 3.4 Test validity and reliability.....................................................................................30 3.5 Data Analysis.......................................................................................................... 30 CHAPTER FOUR..................................................................................................................32 DATA ANALYSIS, FINDING S AND DISCUSSION 4.1 introduction............................................................................................................. 32 4.2: General information...............................................................................................32 4.2.1: Response rate............................................................................................. 32 4.2.2: Distribution of respondents by designation............................................... 32 4.2.3: Distribution of respondents by length of Service with organization (years)................................................................................................................... 33 4.2.4: Distribution of respondents by legal status.................................. 34 4.3 Capital Budgeting Techniques............................................................................. 34 4.3.1 Use of Capital Budgeting Techniques................................................................ 35 4.3.2 Existence of a major switch in techniques used over the last 5 years............. 36 4.3.3 Techniques used when deciding investment projects to pursue..................... 36 4.3.4 Staff assigned full-time to capital investment analysis.................................... 37 4.3.5 Existence of written capital investment guidelines........................................ 38 4.3.6 Technique companies use to assess a project’s risk.............................................38 vii 4.3.7 Approaches used in determining the minimum acceptable rate of return 39 4.4 Correlation and Regression analysis........................................................ 40 4.4.1 Correlation analysis............................................................................... 40 4.4.2 Strength of the model.................................................................................. 40 4.4.3 Regression Analysis...................................................................................... 42 4.5 Summary of findings and interpretation....................................................... 43 CHAPTER FIVE........................................................................................................ 45 5.0 SUMM ARY CONCLUSION AND RECOM M ENDATIONS............... 5.1: Summary....................................................................................................... 45 5.2 Conclusions..................................................................................................... 46 5.3 Policy Recommendations.................................................................................. 46 5.4 Limitations of the Study.................................................................................. 48 5.5 Suggestions for further study.......................................................................... 49 REFERENCES............................................................................................................50 Appendix I: Letter of authorization to collect data................................................. Appendix II: Questionnaire.................................................................................... Appendix III: List of companies listed in Nairobi stock Exchange......................... viii LIST OF TABLES Table 4.2.3: Length of Service with organization (years)....................................... 33 Table 4.3.1 Frequency of use of Evaluation Techniques............................................ 35 Table 4.3.2 Techniques used when deciding investment projects to pursue....... 37 Table 4.3.3 Technique companies use to assess a project’s risk................................. 39 Table 4.3.4 Approaches used in determining the minimum acceptable rate of return39 Table 4.4.1: Pearson Correlation coefficients............................................................. 40 Table 4.4.2: Model Summary....................................................................................... 41 Table 4.3.3: ANOVA................................................................................................... 41 Table 4.3.4: Coefficients of regression equation 43 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Gender Composition Figure 2: Legal status Figure 3: Existence of a major switch in techniques used over the last 5 years Figure 4: Full time staff to handle capital investment analysis Figure 5:_Existence of written capital investment guidelines x ABSTRACT The study was set out to determine the Capital Budgeting techniques used in investment appraisal decisions amongst Companies listed at the Nairobi Stock Exchange, and to find out the relationship between capital budgeting techniques and the financial performance of 47 companies listed in the Nairobi Stock Exchange. The study employed a census survey. Primary data was collected through questionnaires which were dropped and picked from the respondents. Of the target population of the study, 39 questionnaires were returned and this represented 82.9% response rate. The study found out that all the four capital budgeting techniques; payback method, accounting rate of return internal rate of return and net present value were being used by the companies listed in the Nairobi stock exchange. On the relationship between capital budgeting techniques and corporate performance, the earnings before interest and tax and total assets, the data was collected from the capital Markets authority and NSE records. The data was analyzed using the statistical package for social sciences (SPSS) version 17. The study used multiple regression analysis to find the association between capital budgeting techniques and the financial performance of companies listed at the Nairobi Stock Exchange. Forecasting model was developed and tested for accuracy in obtaining predictions. The finding of the study indicated that model was significant. This is demonstrated in the part of the analysis where R' for the association between capital budgeting techniques and the financial performance of companies listed at the Nairobi Stock Exchange w'as 76%. In other words the results revealed a consistent, significant positive association between capital budgeting techniques and corporate performance measured by ROA. It is recommended that a similar study be carried out in other companies not listed in the Nairobi stock exchange to test the same relationship and also in a specific industry to obtain homogenous results. XI CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background to the Study. The survival of a company depends very much on its ability to generate returns from its investments. Capital expenditures required in investment normally involve large sums of money and the benefits of the expenditures may extend over the future. According to Mooi and Mustapha (2001), utilizing a systematic capital budgeting process would enhance capital expenditure decisions. The terms capital budgeting and investment decisions will be used in the literature to refer one and the same thing. Capital budgeting is the process of evaluating and selecting long term investments consistent with the firm owners’ goal of wealth maximization. Examples o f capital budgeting include expenditure on land, buildings, equipment and permanent additions associated with plant expansion. Investment decisions involve the firm making cash outlay with the aim of receiving, in return, future cash flows. Decisions about buying a new machine, building a factory, extending a warehouse, improving a delivery service, instituting a staff training scheme or launching a new product line are examples of the investment decisions that may be made by a firm. The process would be based mainly on managers’ judgment or based on quantitative analysis using scientific and analytical tools. One of the most significant decisions made by management is that of capital budgeting. Today’s companies often make decisions costing millions of shillings for capital improvements. These decisions have the capacity to literally bankrupt a company if they are made without a proper understanding of capital budgeting procedures. Investment decisions are worthwhile if they create value for its owners. Many managers may argue that if the project returns more than what was invested, the project is profitable, but this is simplistic because the argument ignores some very important elements such as the time value of money. More specifically, the problem of the management should be how to tell if it will create 1 value-in advance. To address this concern, companies use some form of capital budgeting techniques to determine if a project will add the minimum needed value to justify the capital outlay and the risk involved. 1.1.2 Capital budgeting techniques The most common capital budgeting techniques used are net present value, internal rate of return, payback period, accrual accounting rate of return and the profitability index. The first four techniques are the most popular. Net Present Value (NPV) is a technique that determines the present value of the inflows and outflows and then simply takes a difference between the two. If that difference is positive, it is considered to be returning the required rate of return and is acceptable project. If the amount is negative, it is not providing a sufficient return and would be rejected. In the event two or more mutually exclusive projects all have positive net present value, then the project with the highest NPV is selected. The generally accepted advantages o f NPV are that it considers the time value of money and it is relatively easy to calculate. On the other hand, it is often difficult for laymen to understand the results obtained and most importantly it assumes that interim payments received during the life of the project can be invested at the discount rate used in the calculation. This is often not a true statement and can be used to manipulate the results of the analysis. Internal rate of return (IRR) is simply a variation of NPV in that it attempts to find the discount rate that provides a NPV of zero. As stated above, the net present value is calculated by using a predetermined discount rate. If the NPV is positive it is assumed that the actual return is higher. If the NPV is negative, it is presumed the actual return is lower. By continuously manipulating the discount rate it is possible to hone in on the rate where the NPV is zero. That rate is considered to be the internal rate o f return. Clearly, one of the disadvantages of IRR is that it is more difficult to calculate since it involves an iterative process. Furthermore, because of the often-misunderstood assumption about interim payments being reinvested at the IRR rate it is possible to have more than one IRR for one project. 2 both the primary and secondary market. It is currently divided into three segments: the main investment segment, the alternative investments segment, and the fixed income securities segment. There are 47 listed companies as at 30th June 2010. The NSE has both the primary secondary market. It has acted as an important avenue through which the government has carried out the divestiture programme and for firms seeking additional capital. It deals with both the fixed income securities such as Treasury and corporate bonds, debenture stocks, and preference shares and variable income securities such as ordinary shares. It is also among the most active stock exchanges in Africa. 1.2 Statement of the Problem: According to financial theory, the objective of the firm is to maximize the wealth of its shareholders. The optimal investment decision is hence the one that maximizes the shareholders’ wealth. Sophisticated capital budgeting procedures can under the assumption o f economic rationality all be regarded as means, which a firm uses in order to fulfill its objective, i.e to maximize shareholders wealth. This fact indicates that firms can increase or even maximize their shareholders wealth by using sophisticated capital procedures. Hence from a perspective of the finance theory, the relationship between capital budgeting sophistication and financial performance is expected to be positive. Studies on the relationship between capital budgeting sophistication and financial performance of a firm have presented mixed results. Klammer,T.(1973), in his study of the relationship between sophisticated capital budgeting methods and financial performance in US, found out that, despite the growing adoption of sophisticated capital budgeting methods, there was no consistent significant association between financial performance and capital budgeting techniques. A similar research by Haka. Gordon and Pinches (1985), found out that there was no significant improvements in firms financial performance even though the firms had adopted sophisticated selection techniques. However they found that there were short-run 5 positive effects when firms adopt sophisticated capital budgeting selection procedures. Moore J.& Reichert (1989) in their multivariate study of firm performance and the use of modem analytical tools and financial techniques study in 500 firms in US , the study showed that firms adopting sophisticated capital budgeting techniques had better than average firm financial performance. More specifically, firms using modern inventory management techniques and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) reported superior financial performance, unlike those firms using naive methods such as Pay Back method and Accounting Rate of Return (ARR). Locally three studies on capital budgeting have been carried out. Olum’s (1976) study viewed capital investment Appraisal techniques from the point o f view of social responsibility, that is, the benefits of such projects to the society. Kadondi (2002) in her study looked at capital budgeting application by companies listed at the Nairobi Stock Exchange. Khakasa (2009) sought to provide empirical evidence on the current state of the use of formal appraisal investment techniques in IT investments among the Kenyan banking institutions. Following the conflicting results on the impact of capital budgeting techniques on financial performance, and lack of a local study on the same, this study seeks to survey the impact of capital budgeting techniques on the financial performance of companies listed at the Nairobi Stock Exchange. 1.3 Research Objectives i) To determine the Capital Budgeting techniques used in investment appraisal decisions amongst Companies listed at the Nairobi Stock Exchange ii) To establish the relationship between capital budgeting techniques and the financial performance of companies listed at the Nairobi Stock Exchange nr / $ \ 6 1.4 Significance of the Study This study will be important to the following parties: To Company The results of this study will help managers to evaluate the current capital budgeting practices in their companies. By looking at the study, the managers will be able to see the capital budgeting techniques applied across the Kenyan companies and how these techniques can possibly improve the company’s wealth or value. With that, they can make some comparisons with their company’s practices. This is important because a company’s main objective is to maximize its shareholder’s wealth. To achieve this, the company will possibly need the most reliable tool that can assist in investment decision making. Researchers This study will provide useful information for researchers regarding the capital budgeting techniques and their impact on financial performance in companies listed at NSE. Other than that, the researchers can also use the study as their basis for further research. The study will be important to academicians who may wish to carry out further research in capital budgeting as this will add more to the existing body of knowledge. To Academicians The study will also be significant to academicians. It will give detailed information to them on how far the techniques taught in class differ from that practiced in the real world. By having this information, academicians will be able to make some adjustments in trying to accommodate things taught in class with real life practices. 7 CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW 2.0 Introduction This chapter will discuss the literature review used in this study. Section 2.1 details the theoretical framework; Section 2.2 discusses the evolution of capital budgeting practices. Section 2.3 will discuss the capital budgeting process. Section 2.4 details the decision criteria methods, section 2.5 discusses Risk analysis, section 2.6 discusses the empirical studies and section 2.7 concludes and summarizes the empirical studies. 2.1 Theoretical Framework 2.1.1 The Contingency Theory According to Pike (1986), resource-allocation efficiency is not merely a matter of adopting sophisticated, theoretically superior investment techniques and procedures. But consideration must also be given to the fit between the corporate context and the design and operation of the capital budgeting system. Pike (1986) focuses on three aspects of the corporate context, which are assumed to be associated with the design and operation of a firm’s capital budgeting system. The first aspect is a firm’s organizational characteristics. Decentralization and a more administratively oriented control strategy involving a higher degree of standardization are characteristics of large companies. Smaller, less complex organizations tend to adopt interpersonal, less sophisticated control systems. Haka et al (1985) however have an opposite opinion and argue that firms will experience more benefits from using sophisticated capital budgeting techniques, the more stable the environment. They base their argument on Schall & Sundem (1980) study, which shows that use of sophisticated capital budgeting techniques declines with an increase in environmental uncertainty. 8 The second aspect is environmental uncertainty. The more variable and unpredictable the context of operation is, the less appropriate are highly bureaucratic, mechanistic capital budgeting structures. Pike (1986) suggests that firms operating in highly uncertain environments are assumed to benefit from sophisticated investment methods, particularly in appraising risk. The last aspect concerns behavior characteristics. Pike (1986) identifies three characteristics, i.e. management style, degree of professionalism and the history of the organization. An administratively-oriented capital budgeting control strategy is assumed to be consistent with an analytical style of management, a high degree of professionalism and a history o f undistinguished investment outcomes. The firm’s financial status may influence the design and effort put on capital budgeting. According to Axelsson,et al.,(2002), more effort will be devoted to budgeting in an adverse financial situation, since it will no longer be as simple to find an acceptable budget and there will a need for more frequent follow up. These arguments have been applied to capital budgeting by Haka et al. (1985). They argue that the implementation of sophisticated capital budgeting procedures is one o f many means of coping with acute resource scarcity. Another argument is that since the main value of adequate investment rules is in distinguishing profitable from unprofitable projects, highly profitable firms are expected to derive less benefit from such techniques than would less successful firms with a history of marginal projects Axelsson,et al.,(2002). 2.1.2 The Garbage Can Theory The garbage can was first developed by Cohen et al. (1972) to describe decision­ making in colleges. The theory articulates that the educational institutions face decision situations involving unclear goals, unclear technology and fluid participation. The most important features of the garbage theory entails four independent streams of decision making: problems, solutions, participants and choice opportunities. The theory postulates that choices happen for no apparent reason. Outcomes are divorced from problems, people wander aimlessly in and out of decision arenas, some decisions are made, and some problems are solved 9 (Bendor et aL 2001). The fundamental premise o f the theory is that decisions in an organized anarchy cannot be understood using the intentions of organizational participants, and imposing a rational explanation on organizational behavior can only distort what is really going on. In Cohen et al.’s original approach, organizations that have to rely on policy managers for advice, will have budgetary policy outputs that resemble a random process where current output has no relationship to the previous output. 2.1.3 The Incrementalism Theory The literature on budgetary decisions has been dominated by the theory of incrementalism and its various meanings (Berry. 1990). This theory suggests that policy makers use ‘rules of thumb’ in order to deal with the technical complexity of expenditure decisions. Wildavsky, the founder o f this theory, implies that the people who design the budget are concerned with relatively small increments to an existing base denoted as their fair share. It follows that budgeting is incremental to the extent that it results in marginal and regularity of changes in expenditure. Regularity embodies the idea of routine behavior in expenditure decisions. This view of incrementalism opines that small changes in expenditure base may be seen as preserving stability. 2.1.4 The Real Options Theory'. The term ‘Real options’ was first coined by Myers (1984) in 1977, and the subject has generated much interest among some finance and academics and practitioners. Real options deal with choices about the real investments such as capital budgeting projects, as opposed to financial investments. Thus, a real option is a right but not an obligation to undertake some business decision. Among the more common real options in capital budgeting are the option to invest or not, the option to abandon or continue a project, and the option to delay or carry on with an investment (Chance and Peterson, 2002). Real options potentially offer a more efficient way for managers to allocate their firm’s capital and maximize shareholder value by leveraging uncertainty and limiting downside risk. The 10 theory further asserts that the presence of real options can make an investment worth more than its conventional discounted cash flow value. Arnold. T. & Shockley,R (2003) attribute the wave of interest in real options to an increase in both supply and demand. The supply side reflects a growing body of literature pertaining to the real options approach. The demand side for real options reflects management’s need to position the firm to benefit from uncertainty and to communicate the firm’s strategic flexibility. Increasingly, managers in industries characterized by large capital investments and considerable uncertainty and flexibility, such as mining, oil and gas aerospace, pharmaceuticals, and biotechnology, are contemplating the use of real options. Real options hold a considerable promise because they recognize that managers can obtain valuable information after the acceptance of a project. Yet, real options are by no means a panacea or a silver bullet intended for all capital projects. 2.2 The Evolution of Capital Budgeting Practices Budgeting for capital expenditure has evolved over the decades and its importance has increased (or decreased) over time. Overall, the discernible stages of changes in capital budgeting practices and systems can be identified (Shah, Anwar, 2007). The first stage is the Great Depression years during which efforts were mainly focused on designing ways to ensure economic recovery. At the time, public borrowing for financing capital outlays, except for emergencies, was not favored. Sweden introduced a capital budget that was to be funded by public borrowing and used to finance the creation of durable and self-financing assets that would contribute to an expansion of net worth equivalent to the amount of borrowing. This investment borrowing found extended application in other countries. The second stage took place during the late 1930s when the colonial government in India introduced a capital budget to reduce the budget deficit by shifting some items o f expenditures from the current budget. It was believed that the introduction of this dual -budget system would provide a convenient way to reduce deficits while justifying a rationale for borrowing (Tarschys, 2002). 11 UNIVERSITY OF NAIROo. LOWF® i Tarschvs, (2002) states that, the third stage refers to the growing importance attached to capital budgets as a vehicle for development plans. This was partly by the soviet-style planning; many low-income countries formulated comprehensive five-year plans and considered capital budgets the main impetus for economic development. Where capital budgets did not exist, a variant known as the development budget was introduced. The fourth stage reflects the importance of economic policy choices on the allocation of resources in government. The quantitative appraisal techniques were applied on a wider scale during the 1960s leading to more rigorous application of investment appraisal and financial planning (Shah, Anwar, 2007). In the 1960s and 1970s it was widely believed that government budget allocation, including investment expenditures, could be largely reduced to a scientific process by systems such as zero-based budgeting(ZBB). Spackman (2002) believed that this turned out to be true. A fifth stage saw a revival of the debate about the need for a capital budget in government, particularly in the United States. Along with the growing application of quantitative techniques during the 1960s came the view that the introduction of capital budget could be advantageous. This view did not gain much support. A president’s commission in 1999 investigating budget concepts in USA concluded that capital budget could lead to greater outlays on bricks and mortar, and as a result, current outlays could suffer. The commission advocated the introduction of accrual accounting government accounts. During the six stage, partly because of the experiences of Australia and New Zealand, there was renewed push by the professional bodies and, from the late 1990s, the international financial institutions for the introduction o f accrual budgeting and accounting. 2.3 The Capital Budgeting Process Capital budgeting is a multi-faceted activity. There are several sequential stages in the process. 12 2.3.1 Strategic Planning A strategic plan is the grand design of the firm and dearly identifies the business the firm is in and where it intends to position itself in the future. Strategic planning translates the firm’s corporate goal into specific policies and directions, sets priorities, specifies the structural, strategic and tactical areas o f business development, and guides the planning process in the pursuit of solid objectives. A firm’s vision and mission is encapsulated in its strategic planning framework. 2.3.2 Identification o f Investment opportunities The identification of investment opportunities and generation of investment project proposals is an important step in the capital budgeting process. Project proposals cannot be generated in isolation. They have to fit in with a firm’s corporate goals, its vision, mission and long-term strategic plan. If an excellent investment opportunity presents itself the corporate vision and strategy may be changed to accommodate it. Thus, there is a two-way traffic between strategic planning and investment opportunities. Some investments are mandatory- for instance, those investments required to satisfy particular regulatory, health and safety requirements- and they are essential for the firm to remain in business. Other investments are discretionary and are generated by growth opportunities, competition, and cost reduction opportunities and so on. These investments normally represent the strategic plan of the business firm and, in turn, these investments can set new directions for the firm’s strategic plan. Profitable investment proposal is not just born: someone has to suggest it. The firm should ensure that it has searched and identified potentially lucrative investment opportunities and proposals, because the reminder o f the capital process can only assure that the best of the proposed investments are evaluated, selected and implemented. 2.3.3 Preliminary screening o f projects Generally, in any organization, there will be many potential investment proposals generated. All the proposals cannot go through the rigorous project analysis process. Thus, the identified investment opportunities have to be subjected to a 13 preliminary screening process by management to isolate the marginal and unsound proposals, because it is not worth spending resources to thoroughly evaluate such proposals. The preliminary screening may involve some preliminary quantitative analysis and judgments based on intuitive feelings and experience of the managers. 2.3.4 Financial appraisal o f projects Projects which pass through the preliminary screening phase become candidates for rigorous financial appraisal to ascertain if they would add value to the firm. This stage is also called quantitative analysis, economic and financial appraisal, project evaluation, or simply project analysis. This project analysis may predict the expected future cash flow of the project, analyze the risk associated with those cash flows, develop alternative cash flow forecasts, examine the sensitivity of the results to possible changes in the predicted cash flows, subject the cash flows to simulation and prepare alternative estimates of the project’s net present value. Financial appraisal will provide the estimated addition to the firm’s value in terms of the project’s net present values. If the projects identified within the current strategic framework o f the firm repeatedly produce negative NPVs in the analysis stage, these results send a message to the management to review its strategic plan. The result of the financial analysis heavily influences the project selection or investment decision. Therefore, project analysis is critically important for the firm. 2.3.5 Qualitative factors in project evaluation When the project passes through the quantitative analysis test, it has to be further evaluated taking into consideration qualitative factors. Qualitative factors are those which will have an impact on the project, but which are virtually impossible to evaluate accurately in monetary terms. They are factors such as the societal impact of an increase or decrease in employee numbers, the environmental impact of the project, possible positive or negative governmental and political attitudes towards the project, the strategic consequences o f consumption of scarce raw materials, positive or negative relationships with labor unions about the project, 14 possible legal difficulties with respect to the use of patents, copyrights and trade or brand names and also the impact on firm’s image if the project is socially questionable. 2.3.6 The accept/ reject decision NPV results from the quantitative analysis combined with qualitative factors form the basis of the decision support information. The analysts relay this information to the management with appropriate recommendations. The management considers this information and other relevant prior knowledge using their routine information sources, experience and judgment to make a major decision- to accept or reject the proposed investment project. 2.3.7 Project implementation and monitoring Once investment projects have passed through the decision stage they then must be implemented by management. During this implementation phase various departments of the firm are likely to be involved. An integral part of project implementation is the constant monitoring of project progress with a view to identifying potential bottlenecks thus allowing early intervention. Deviations from the estimated cash flows need to be monitored on a regular basis with a view to taking corrective actions w'hen needed. 2.3.8 Post-implementation audit Post-implementation audit does not relate to the current support process of the project; it deals with a post-mortem of the performance of already implemented projects. An evaluation of the performance of past decisions, however, can contribute greatly to the improvement of current investment decision-making by analyzing the past ‘rights’ and ‘wrongs’. The post-implementation audit can provide useful feedback to project appraisal or strategy formulation. 2.4 Decision Criteria The decision criteria in capital budgeting are the calculated measures that one can use to compare the cash flow's of different projects or alternatives. Before a decision criterion is selected, it is important to have a clear understanding of the 15 decision criteria currently available. The following decision criteria will be examined in this study: Payback period, accounting rate of return, internal rate of return and Net present value. 2.4.1 Payback period (PB) Linstrom, L (2005) defines the payback period as the expected length o f time for aggregate positive cash flows to equal the initial cost, or the time it is expected to take to recover the initial investment. In order to use the technique as a criterion, a cutoff period is specified and all those projects with payback periods shorter than the cutoff period are then acceptable whereas all those with payback periods longer than the cutoff period are not acceptable. The PB technique is popular with managers because it is simple and readily understood by the managers, it is thought lead to selection of the less risky projects in mutually exclusive decision situations, saves the management the trouble of having to forecast cash flows over the whole of a project’s life and it is a convenient method to use in capital rationing situations. However, this method does not consider all cash flows after the payback period, it also ignores the time value of money in that cash flows that occur at different points in are simply added and compared with the initial amount. 2.4.2 The Accounting Rate of Return (ARR) Kadondi, E. (2002) defines the accounting rate of return as the average after-tax proft divided by the initial cash outlay. Using this method, managers would choose projects with the highest Accounting Rate of Return. This method has the advantage of using the familiar percentage concept and evaluates projects on the basis of profitability. However, this method is not reliable as it ignores the timing of the cash flows and since it is based on accounting income and not on the project’s cash flows. The method also, does not consider the time value o f money. The net present value (NPV) and the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) are referred to as discounted cash flow approaches also referred to as sophisticated methods in this study. 16 2.4.3 The Net Present Value (NPV) The net present value (NPV) criterion is widely accepted as the most reliable decision criterion to use for capital budgeting. It is defined as the present value of all the present and future projected positive cash flows. The discount rate that should equate the rate of return on the next best investment alternative of similar risk,is also known as the opportunity cost of capital. The NPV decision rule is to give further consideration to those projects whose NPV’s are greater than zero. A positive NPV implies that the projected cash flows indicate a return in excess of the discount rate. Any project that provides returns in excess of the opportunity cost, certainly adds additional value of the company, thereby increasing shareholder wealth (Farragher, et al., 2001). NPV takes into account the timing of all the cash flow's, it’s a measure of the added value that a project is projected to make to the company value, by adding their NPV’s one can determine the added value of a selection of projects. However, the implicit assumption in respect of NPV is that all cash flows generated by a project could be reinvested at the rate, k for the remainder of the of the project life. It might be that the opportunity cost of capital in the short term differs from the cost for longer terms. In such a scenario it is difficult to determine one fixed discount rate for the NPV calculation. 2.4.4 The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) The internal rate of return (IRR) is a measure of the return generated by a project. The IRR is defined as that rate of discount that causes the present value of the projected future project cash flows to exactly equal to the initial cost of the project. If managers use the IRR criterion and the projects are independent, they would accept any project that has an IRR greater than the opportunity cost of capital. Analysis by Kadondi, E. (2002) indicates deficiencies in the IRR criteria. First it does not obey the value-additivity principle, and consequently managers who use the IRR cannot consider projects independently of each other. Second, the IRR rule assumes that funds invested in projects have opportunity costs equal to IRR for the project. This implicit reinvestment rate assumption violates the 17 requirement that cash flows be discounted at the market-determined opportunity cost of capital. Finally, the 1RR rule can lead to multiple rates of return whenever the sign o f cash flows changes more than once. She offers the NPV criterion as solution to these shortcomings. The NPV rule directs the manager to discount project cash flows at the market-based cost of capital and to accept all projects with positive discounted values. 2.5 Risk Analysis Given the impact of capital projects on a company’s long-term viability, it is important for companies to understand why projects could fail. The calculation of a decision criterion based on best-estimate predicted cash flows is therefore not sufficient, as it does not indicate the level and nature of the project risks (Linstrom, L, 2005). Hence the need for a better understanding of what can go wrong and what the impact would be on the project outcome. A number of risk analysis techniques are developed for this purpose. These include; sensitivity analysis, scenario Analysis, decision tree Analysis and Simulation. 2.5.1 Sensitivity Analysis This focuses on determining by how much the NPV of a project will change in response to a given change in input variables, holding other factors constant for instance, change in price, change in cost of capital, change in tax, etc. 2.5.2 Scenario Analysis This considers both the sensitivity of NPV to changes in key variables as well as the range of likely variable values. Under this approach, managers assess various possibilities which are grouped. 2.5.3 Decision Tree Analysis This is suitable for use in multi-stage or sequential decision where more than one variable may be uncertain and also the value of some variable may be dependent on value o f other variables. Decision trees are designed to illustrate the full range of alternatives that can occur. Its logical analysis of a problem and enables a complete strategy to be drawn up to cover all eventualities. 18 2.7 Empirical studies on Capital Budgeting Techniques and Financial performance Thomas Klammer (1973) sought to investigate the association of capital budgeting techniques and performance in American firms. Attention was directed at the relationship of performance and capital budgeting procedures because the future o f the firm is dependent largely on the investment decisions made today. A total of 369 manufacturing firms were sampled, o f which 184 firms’ responded 48.9%.The study focused on the operating rate of return as a measure of the firms’ performance. Capital budgeting techniques tested were payback method and the discounting techniques. For testing the association of firm performance and capital budgeting techniques, the study adopted a hypothesis that, firms having better performance will have adopted more sophisticated capital budgeting techniques. A simple regression analysis was carried out to test the hypothesis. The results of the study indicated that, despite a growing adoption of sophisticated capital budgeting methods, the regression results did not show a consistent significant association between performance and capital budgeting techniques. This indicated that the mere adoption of various analytical tools is not sufficient to bring about superior performance and that other factor such as marketing, product development, executive recruitment and training, labor relations, etc., may have a greater impact on profitability. Another study by Haka et al. (1985), aimed to determine the effect on a firm’s market performance of switching from naive to sophisticated capital budgeting selection procedures. They theoretically stated that, a firm should perform better if it employs sophisticated techniques than if it uses naive techniques. The study had a population sample of 50 firms, out of which 30 firms responded. To obtain a set of firms that switched from naive to sophisticated techniques the study used personal interviews for two main reasons; first to determine the firm had indeed adopted sophisticate capital budgeting techniques for evaluating a large part of their capital budget and that such techniques were properly employed. Second, it was important to ascertain as precisely as possible, when the adoption took place. 22 The results of the study provided a more definitive conclusion than Klammer's (1973) study. They found out that 48 months before the firms switched to sophisticated capital budgeting techniques, with three different 48-month periods after the switch, indicated no significant improvements in the relative market performance of the firms’ adopting sophisticated selection techniques. However, while they found no long-run effects on relative market returns for adopting firms, their results suggested that there was a short-run positive effect when firms adopt sophisticated capital budgeting selection procedures. Consistent with Klammer’s (1973) study, other factors were found to vitiate the improvement of firm performance after a switch from naive to sophisticated capital budgeting selection techniques. These factors were found to be; economic stress (the acute resource scarcity), which they asserted that in times of economic stress, firms do some ‘belt tightening’ by instituting cost reduction procedures and the adoption of new criteria for capital budgeting could be one of these belt tightening procedure. The company’s reward structure was also another factor, where they found out that companies that reward their employees on the basis of long-term incentive plans may experience more benefits from sophisticated selection techniques than companies that reward using a short-term reward plan. Study concluded that the adoption of sophisticated capital budgeting selection techniques, in and of itself, does not result in superior market performance. Mooi and Mustapha (2001) undertook a study to find out whether the degree of sophistication of capital budgeting practice affects the firm performance, in terms of profitability. The study used a sample of 42 firms listed at Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange in Malaysia. The study used Return on Assets (ROA) and Earnings per Share (EPS) to measure performance of the firms, and used regression analysis to determine the association between capital budgeting sophistication and firm performance. The capital budgeting techniques which were surveyed were NPV, IRR, ARR and Payback. From the analysis, 19% of the responding firms used superior capital budgeting methods whose score was 0% to 60%, 42.9% of the firms had a score of 61% to 80% of usage of superior capital budgeting methods, 23 and 38.1% had a score of 81% to 100% of the usage of capital budgeting methods. The t- tests results of the stud) showed that the degree o f capital budgeting sophistication did not significantly affect firm performance, measured by ROA and EPS. Theoretically, the use of superior capital budgeting process should increase the effectiveness of the firms’ investments decision making. Thus their study failed to confirm with the theory. Gilbert (2005) carried out a study to determine the application o f capital budgeting methods and their association with firm performance among South African manufacturing firms. A sample of 318 firms was surveyed, but only 118 firms representing 37% responded. The survey tested the application and impact of payback method, accounting rate of return, net present value and the internal rate of return. The return on assets was also used as a measure of firm performance. The results of the study indicated that, 15% of the firms employed the payback method, 8% used purely the discounting methods while the rest employed a mixture of both non-discounting and discounting methods. It was also concluded that though many o f the managers were aware of the benefits of using the discounting methods, their responses involved the use of shortcuts, and approximations. The study conclude that, while discounted cash flow methods can, and do, play an important role in capital investment decision-making, the costs and sometimes impossibility of completing them, properly means that their use is always going to be limited. Thus the conclusion of the study was that capital budgeting techniques had no significant impact on the financial performance of the manufacturing firms. A study by Olawale et al. (2010) was conducted to investigate if companies make use of sophisticated investment appraisal techniques when making investment decisions, and the impact of sophisticated appraisal techniques on the profitability of the manufacturing firms in the Nelson Mandela Bay Metropolitan area, South Africa. The study had a sample of 124 firms responding, 85 firms making 39% were found to be using sophisticated investment appraisal techniques when making investment decisions. Therefore the first objective that the manufacturing 24 firms make use of sophisticated investment appraisal techniques when making investment decisions was confirmed. The profitability of the firms was measured by return on assets (ROA), the return on assets was determined based on the calculation of the earnings after interest and taxes (EAIT) and total assets. The study used regression analysis to test the relationship of each independent variable on profitability. The traditional methods comprising the payback method and accounting rate of return were also regressed against profitability to determine their significance and relationships to profitability. The results of the study showed that the pay back method used by the respondents is not significant to profitability and does not have a positive relationship with profitability of the respondent firms. Accounting rate of return was also found insignificant to profitability and negatively related to profitability. However, the results indicated that use sophisticated investment appraisal techniques had a positive impact on profitability thus confirming the second objective o f the study. Moore J.& Reichert (1989), in their multivariate study of firm performance and the use of modern analytical tools and financial techniques study in 500 firms in US , the study showed that firms adopting sophisticated capital budgeting techniques had better than average firm financial performance. More specifically, firms using modern inventory management techniques and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) reported superior financial performance, unlike those firms using naive methods such as Pay Back method and Accounting Rate of Return (ARR). Yao et al., (2006), conducted a study to compare the use of capital budgeting techniques and their impact on performance in Netherlands and China. They compared 250 Dutch and 300 Chinese firms. Out of all the firms, 87 firms responded, 42 from Dutch and 45 from Chinese companies, resulting in a response rate of 17% for the Dutch and 15% for the Chinese sample. The results indicated that 49% CFOs in Chinese firms use the NPV method as opposed to 9 % who use the traditional investment decision methods. In Dutch, the study found that 89% of the firms use NPV investment decision method while traditional investment decision methods took the rest of the respondents. Their study used 25 return on assets to measure performance which was used in a regression model as a dependent variable and measured against the various investment decision techniques. The results indicated that in both countries, sophisticated capital budgeting techniques mostly NPV and 1RR had a positive relationship with return on assets (ROA) while the traditional methods showed an insignificant relationship. In Kenya, Olum’s (1976) study sought to view capital budgeting from the stand point of shareholders’ wealth maximization and examined the extent to which capital budgeting techniques were being practically applied by corporations in Kenya. He argues that the current Capital Investment appraisal techniques are applied from only two points o f view; namely that of a private entrepreneur and that of the whole society, considering commercial profitability and public profitability respectively. Kadondi (2002) undertook a study to determine the capital budgeting techniques used by companies listed at NSE and also to determine how the firms' and CEO characteristics influence the use of a particular technique. The study had a sample of 43 companies, out o f which 28(65%) companies responded to the study questionnaire. The study found out that 85% carry out capital budgeting in stages though many of the respondents ignored the first stages of capital budgeting. Of these, the study found that 31% used the payback method, 27% applied NPV while 23% were using the IRR technique. Khakasa (2009), attempts to provide empirical evidence on the state of practice in Kenyan banking institutions in evaluating IT investments ex ante. The results of the survey showed that the most popular investment appraisal techniques used in such evaluation in Kenyan banks were cost-benefit analysis, risk analysis, competition, payback period and return on investment, while the least popular are the internal Rate of Return, computer based techniques and the Net Present Value. Of the 41 banks sampled, a total of 25 responses were obtained. This was a response rate of 60.97%. 100% of the responding institutions indicated that they used at least one of the economic techniques to appraise potential IT projects. Most institutions used more than one financial technique to appraise their 26 investments. The most popular economic technique is the Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) method (92%), while Internal Rate of Return (IRR) ranked the lowest (0%). Besides CBA, payback period and Return on Investment were both used by 60% of the responding institutions. Only 8% of the banking institutions used at least one of the discounting techniques. Net Present Value was found to be used by 8% of the banks, while IRR is used by none of the responding banks. Overall, the study concluded that banks had limited use of discounting techniques and this raised questions as to the extent of the use of cash flows to appraise potential projects. 2.8 Summary and Conclusions The objectives of this study are to determine the capital budgeting techniques employed by listed companies and the effect of those techniques on the financial performance. The results of most studies have reported the use of both the naive capital budgeting and discounted cash flow techniques. The naive methods include; the payback method and the accounting rate of return. The discounted cash flow methods otherwise referred to as sophisticated capital budgeting include the net present value and the internal rate of return. Many companies seem to prefer the payback method and net present value to accounting rate of return and internal rate of return respectively. In the literature, it has been argued that the use of capital budgeting practices may be related to improved financial performance. A number of arguments to support this have been cited. Some of the studies indicated that sophisticated capital budgeting techniques mostly NPV and IRR had a positive relationship with return on assets (ROA) while the traditional methods showed an insignificant relationship. However similar studies reported a negative relationship of the capital budgeting techniques and financial performance. The studies have indicated that, despite a growing adoption of sophisticated capital budgeting methods, there is no consistent significant association between performance and capital budgeting techniques. This indicates that the mere adoption o f various analytical tools is not sufficient to bring about superior performance and that other 27 factor such as marketing, product development, executive recruitment and training, labor relations, etc., may have a greater impact on profitability. Local studies on the other hand have mainly dealt with the application of the capital budgeting techniques in listed companies and also in the banking sector. Their findings indicate that discounted cash flow methods are not extensively being used to appraise investment decisions. The study in the banking sector particularly found the overwhelming application o f the naive capital budgeting techniques. Thus given these conflicting findings in the literature and lack of substantive local study on the effect of capital budgeting techniques on financial performance, this study seeks to establish the effect of the capital budgeting techniques on financial performance of companies listed at NSE. 28 CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY 3.0 Introduction This chapter covered the design of the study, the target population of the study, data collection method, data quality, measurement of variables used in analyzing the data, statistical technique used for data analysis. 3.1 Research Design The study employed a survey design to determine the capital budgeting techniques and their impact on financial performance in companies quoted at the NSE. The survey design was chosen because it best suited as it was exploratory and gave the researcher an opportunity collect the relevant data to meet the objectives of the study. Again the survey design extensively used in the similar studies reviewed in the literature. For instance the study by Klammer (1973), Moore J. & Reichert (1989) and Khakasa (2009) just to mention a few employed this type of research design. 3.2 Population of the Study The target population consisted of all the 47 companies listed at The Nairobi Stock Exchange as at 30lh June 2010. The choice of quoted companies was preferred because they represented the main sectors of the Kenyan economy, and are therefore considered as adequate representation of companies in Kenya. In addition, since they are publicly quoted and publish their annual reports, information about the measurement of the financial performance were readily available, unlike those of unlisted companies. The study employed a census survey, because the NSE as of the time of the study had only 47 listed companies, therefore the whole population of the companies was included in this study. Thus, no sampling procedure was conducted. It was also noted that in comparison to similar studies conducted elsewhere, the size of the population in this study is small. The study covered a period of four years from 2004-2007. The justification for the choice of this period was that the period 29 was considered both current and long enough for any capital budgeting decision to be taken, implemented and results established. As the study used ROA to measure financial performance of the companies, as a comparative measure its best to compare it against a company's previous ROA. Previous studies have also employed a similar period of time for instance the study by Axelsson, et al. (2002) and Farragher,et.al (2001). 3.3 Data collection The study employed both Primary and secondary data. The primary data was related more to the qualitative than the quantitative data. The data was collected through questionnaires which were administered by the researcher. The secondary data w'as collected from the published accounts of the companies. The published accounts were obtained from NSE library and Capital Markets Authority (CMA). 3.4 Test Validity and Reliability Reliability of the measures was assessed with use of Cronbach’s alpha. Cronbach’s alpha which allows for measurement of reliability of the different categories. It consists of estimates of how much variation in scores o f different variables is attributable to chance or random errors (Selltiz, et al. 1976). As a general rule, a coefficient greater than or equal to 0.5 was considered acceptable and a good indication of construct reliability (Nunnally, 1978). 3.5 Data Analysis Data obtained were analyzed in general for selected companies listed at the NSE. Regression analysis was used to test the impact of capital budgeting techniques on the financial performance. This study employs a model used by Olawale, F. et al. (2010) and Klammer (1973). The regression equation used was; ROA = _a + /?] NPV + p i ARR + PB + p4 IRR + |35 Cont + el Where ROA= Return on assets (profitability) NPV= the effect in sh.of the present value technique. ARR= the effect in sh. of the accounting rate of return technique. PB = the effect in sh. of the payback technique. IRR = the effect in sh. of the internal rate of return. 30 Corn. = is a vector of control variables, a = a constant p \ ,p l ,p 5 ,$ 4 and 05 are regression coefficients e 1 = represents the error term. The statistical package for social sciences will (SPSS) version 17 was used to analyze the data into frequency distribution. The primary data from the questionnaire were analyzed using descriptive statistics, particularly frequencies and percentages. Information then was generalized and summarized using tables and histograms where appropriate. 31 CHAPTER FOUR 4.0 DATA ANALYSIS, FINDINGS AND DISCUSSION 4.1: Introduction The research objectives were to determine the Capital Budgeting techniques used in investment appraisal decisions amongst Companies listed at the Nairobi Stock Exchange and to find out the relationship between capital budgeting techniques and the financial performance of companies listed at the Nairobi Stock Exchange. This chapter presents the analysis and findings with regard to the objective and discussion of the same. The data was collected from the population of 47 companies listed at Nairobi stock exchange. The findings are presented in pie charts, histograms frequency distributions and narrations. 4.2: General information The general information considered in this study were Designation, years have you worked for your current organization and legal status of the company. 4.2.1: Response rate A total of 47 questionnaires were issued out. The completed questionnaires were edited for completeness and consistency. Of the 47 questionnaires used in the sample, 39 were returned. The remaining 8 were not returned. The returned questionnaires’ represented a response rate of 82.9%, which the study considered adequate for analysis. 4.2.2: Distribution of respondents by designation As can be observed, in Figure I, the respondents were made up of 6 1.5% were investment managers, 30.8% were finance managers and 7.7% were risk managers. 32 Figure 1: Gender Composition 4.2.3: Distribution of respondents by length of Service with organization (years) The results presented in table 4.1 shows that majority of the respondents (35.9%) had worked in there respective organization for over six years, 33.3% had been in their organization for 4 to 5 years and the remaining 30.8% had worked for 2 to 3 years in their current organizations. Table 4.2.3: Length of Serv ice w ith organization (years) Number of service years Frequency Percent Cumulative Percent 2-3 years . 12 30.8 30.8 4-5 years 13 33.3 64.1 over 6 years 14 35.9 100.0 Total ____________________________ 39 100.0 Source: researcher’s raw data. 33 4.2.4: Distribution of respondents by legal status As can be observed, in Figure 2, 69.2% of the respondents were from private companies while 30.8% were from public companies. Figure 2: Legal status Public company 30 .8% 4.3 Capital Budgeting Techniques This section covered information posed to respondents on the following issues; Use of Capital Budgeting Techniques, a major switch in techniques used over the last 5 years, techniques company favor when deciding investment projects to pursue, average proportion of total capital expenditures company made in the last five years, written capital investment guidelines, technique company use to assess 34 a project's risk and approaches used to determine the minimum acceptable rate of return. 4.3.1 Use o f Capital Budgeting Techniques The respondents were to rate how frequently their company’s used the following evaluation techniques when deciding investment projects to pursue. As shown in table 4.3.1, payback period was the most frequently used evaluation technique (mean of 3.4872), followed by Internal rate of return (mean of 3.3077), Net present value (mean of 3.0513) and Accounting rate of return (mean of 3.000) respectively. Payback period was frequently used due to its easy of calculation and interpretation as compared to other evaluation techniques. Table 4.3.1 Frequency of use o f Evaluation Techniques Mean Std. Deviation Net present value 3.0513 .91619 Internal rate of return 3.3077 .92206 Accounting rate of return 3.0000 .97333 Payback period 3.4872 .85446 UNIVERSITY OF NAlROSt LOWER Ka ***►■f-p | a 35 As can be observed, in Figure 3, 53.8% of the respondents were of the opinion that their firms had made a major switch in techniques used over the last 5 years while 46.2% of respondents firms had not made a major switch in techniques used over the last 5 years Figure 3: Existence o f a major sw itch in techniques used over the last 5 years 4 .3 .2 E x i s t e n c e o f a m a j o r s w i t c h in t e c h n i q u e s u s e d o v e r t h e l a s t 5 y e a r s 4.3.3 Techniques used when deciding investment projects to pursue The respondents were to indicate the type techniques their respective company’s favour when deciding investment projects to pursue. The findings in table 4.3.2 indicate that 83.6% of the respondents firms favored net present value techniques when deciding investment projects to pursue, followed by Internal rate of return at 41.0%, Accounting rate of return and Payback period at 3.3% respectively. 36 T a b l e 4 . 3 . 2 T e c h n i q u e s u s e d w h e n d e c i d i n g i n v e s t m e n t p r o j e c t s t o p u r s u e Frequency Percent Cumulative Percent Net present value 17 43.6 43.6 Internal rate of return 16 41.0 84.6 Accounting rate of return 3 7.7 92.3 Payback period IT " 7.7 100.0 Total 39 100.0 Source: researcher’s raw Data. 4.3.4 S taff assigned full-time to capital investment analysis As shown in figure 4, most o f the respondents (92.3%) were of the opinion that their respective firms had full time staff assigned to capital investment analysis, while only 7.7 % of the respondents were of the opinion that their firms do not have full time staff assigned to deal with capital investment analysis. Figure 4: Full time staff to handle capital investment analysis NO 7 .7 % 37 4 .3 .5 E x i s t e n c e o f w r i t t e n c a p i t a l i n v e s t m e n t g u i d e l i n e s The findings in figure 5 show that 79.5% of the respondents firms had written capital investment guidelines while 20.5% did not have the same. Figure 5: Existence o f written capital investment guidelines 4.3.6 Technique companies use to assess a project’s risk The respondents were to rate technique company’s used to assess a project’s risk. As shown in table 4.3.3, Sensitivity analysis was the most frequently used project risk assessment technique (mean of 3.7852), followed by Scenario analysis 38 (mean o f 3.1026), Simulation analysis (mean o f 2.9744) and Decision tree analysis (mean o f 2.5897) respectively. Table 4.3.3 Technique companies use to assess a project’s risk Mean Std. Deviation Scenarios analysis 3.1026 .91176 Sensitivity analysis 3.7852 .50637 Decision tree analysis 2.5897 .93803 Stimulation analysis 2.9744 1.08790 4.3.7 Approaches used in determining the minimum acceptable rate o f return The findings in results in table 4.3.4 show that majority (61.5%)of the respondents prefer Cost of equity capital over other approaches in determining minimum rate of returns for investments, followed by weighted average cost of capital at 30.8% rating and cost of debts at 7.7% respectively. Table 4.3.4 Approaches used in determining the minimum acceptable rate of return Frequency Percent Cumulative Percent Weighted average cost of capital 12 30.8 30.8 Cost o f debt 3 7.7 38.5 Cost o f equity capital 24 61.5 100.0 Total 39 100.0 Source: researcher’s raw data. 39 4 .4 C o r r e l a t i o n a n d R e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s 4.4.1: Correlation analysis Two predictor variable are said to be correlated if their coefficient of correlations is greater than 0.5. In such a situation one of the variables must be dropped or removed from the model. As shown in table 4.4.1, none of the predictor variables had coefficient of correlation between themselves more than 0.5 hence all of them were included in the model. Table 4.4.1: Pearson Correlation coefficients ROA NPV ARR IRR PB CONT ROA 1.000 NPV .025 1.000 ARR .135 .159 1.000 IRR .058 -.030 .147 1.000 PB • .350 .371 .172 .098 1.000 CONT .262 -.400 -.116 .098 -.299 1.000 Source: researcher’s raw data. 4.4.2 Strength of the model Analysis in table 4.4.2 shows that the coefficient of determination (the percentage variation in the dependent variable being explained by the changes in the independent variables) R2 equals 0.760, that is, CONT, IRR, ARR, PB, NPV explain 76 percent of ROA leaving only 24 percent unexplained. The P- value of 0.001 (Less than 0.05) implies that the model of ROA is significant at the 5 percent significance. 40 T a b l e 4 . 4 . 2 : M o d e l S u m m a r y R Adjusted R R Square Square Std. Error o f the Estimate Change Statistics R Square F Sig. F Change Change dfl df2 Change .872 .760 .754 1 1 .05163 .760 4.893 5 ‘ 1 ____ 1_____ 33 .001 _____ ________________________________ Predictors: (Constant), CONT. IRR, ARR, PB, NPV Table 4.4.3: ANOVA Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. 1 Regression .025 5 .005 4.893 .001 Residual .088 33 .003 Total .113 38 Predictors: (Constant), CONT, IRR, ARR, PB, NPV :Dependent Variable: ROA The probability value (p-value) of a statistical hypothesis test is the probability of getting a value of the test statistic as extreme as or more extreme than that observed by chance alone, if the null hypothesis HO is true. The p-value is compared with the actual significance level of the test and, if it is smaller, the result is significant. The smaller it is, the more convincing is the rejection of the null hypothesis. ANOVA findings in table 4.4.3 shows that there is correlation between the predictors variables (CONT, IRR, ARR, PB, NPV ) and response variable (ROA) since P- value o f 0.001 is less than 0.05. 41 4.4.3 Regression Analysis The established multiple linear regression equation becomes: Y = 0.001 + 0.038X, + 0.027X2 + 0.042X3 + 0.025X4 + 0.019X5 Where Constant = 0.001, shows that if CONT, IRR, ARR, PB, NPV were all rated as zero. ROA rating would be 0.001 X|= 0.038, shows that one unit change in NPV results in 0.038 units increase in ROA X2= 0.027, shows that one unit change in ARR results in 0.027 units increase in ROA X3= 0.042, shows that one unit change in IRR results in 0.042 units increase in ROA X4= 0.025, shows that one unit change in PB results in 0.025 units increase in ROA Xs= 0.019, show's that one unit change in CONT results in 0.019 units increase in ROA. Ranking of the individual independent variables, it shows that, IRR is highly related w'ith ROA, followed by NPV, ARR, PB and controlled variables respectively. 42 T a b l e 4 . 4 . 4 : C o e f f i c i e n t s o f r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients t Sig. B Std. Error Beta (Constant) 0.001 0.073 0.0136986 0.994 NPV 0.038 0.014 0.191 2.7142857 0.003 ARR 0.027 0.012 0.149 2.2500 0.004 IRR 0.042 0.011 0.063 3.8181818 0.001 PB 0.025 0.01 1 0.365 2.2727273 .000 CONT 0.019 0.009 0.253 2.1111111 0.04 Dependent Vanable: ROA 4.5 Sum m ary of findings and interpretation From the study it was found that of the respondents, 61.5% were investment managers, 30.8% were finance managers and 7.7% were risk managers. This means that most companies listed at the Nairobi Stock exchange have investment managers who solely handle investments. The findings also indicate that 69.2% of the respondents were from private companies while 30.8% were from public companies, an indication that twice as much of the listed companies are private companies. At the same time 79.5% of the respondents firms had written capital investment guidelines. It was noted that company’s used the following capital budgeting evaluation techniques when deciding investment projects to pursue payback period (mean of 3.4872), Internal rate of return (mean of 3.3077) and Net present value (mean of 3.0513) in order of preference. 43 The study indentified the following indicators as the most significance technique company’s used to assess a project’s risk Sensitivity analysis (mean o f 3.7852), Scenarios analysis (mean of 3 .1026) and Stimulation analysis (mean of 2.9744). The respondents were to indicate the type techniques their respective company’s favour when deciding investment projects to pursue. The findings in table 4.3.2 indicate that Feedback on techniques used when deciding investment projects to pursue indicated that most firms favored net present value followed by internal rate of return techniques when deciding investment projects to pursue. At the same time 79.5% of the respondents firms had written capital investment guidelines. It was apparent that majority (61.5%)of the respondents preferred Cost of equity capital over other approaches in determining minimum rate of returns for investments, followed by weighted average cost of capital at 30.8% rating and cost of debts at 7.7% respectively. The study used regression analysis to find the association between capital budgeting techniques and the financial performance of companies listed at the Nairobi Stock Exchange. Forecasting model was developed and tested for accuracy in obtaining predictions. The finding of the study indicated that model was significant. This is demonstrated in the part of the analysis where R2 for the association between capital budgeting techniques and the financial performance of companies listed at the Nairobi Stock Exchange was 76%. All the independent variables were also linearly related with the dependent variable thus a model of five predictor variables (CONT, IRR, ARR, PB, NPV) could be used to forecast ROA of companies listed at NSE. Ranking of the individual independent variables, showed that. IRR is highly related with ROA, followed by NPV, ARR, PB and controlled variables respectively. 44 CHAPTER FIVE 5.0 SUMM ARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOM M ENDATIONS 5.1: Summary The objectives of this study were to determine the Capital Budgeting techniques used in investment appraisal decisions amongst Companies listed at the Nairobi Stock Exchange and to find out the relationship between capital budgeting techniques and the financial performance of companies listed at the Nairobi Stock Exchange. The study was set out to determine the Capital Budgeting techniques used in investment appraisal decisions amongst Companies listed at the Nairobi Stock Exchange, and to find out the relationship between capital budgeting techniques and the financial performance of 47 companies listed in the Nairobi Stock Exchange. The choice of quoted companies was preferred because they represented the main sectors of the Kenyan economy, and are therefore considered as adequate representation of companies in Kenya. In addition, since they are publicly quoted and publish their annual reports, information about the measurement of the financial performance were readily available, unlike those of unlisted companies. The study employed a census survey. Primary data was collected through questionnaires which were dropped and picked from the respondents. Of the target population of the study, 39 questionnaires were returned and this represented 82.9% response rate. The study found out that all the four capital budgeting techniques; payback method, accounting rate of return internal rate of return and net present value were being used by the companies listed in the Nairobi stock exchange. On the relationship between capital budgeting techniques and corporate performance, the earnings before interest and tax and total assets, the data was collected from the capital Markets authority and NSE records. The data was analyzed using the statistical package for social sciences (SPSS) version 17. 45 The study used multiple regression analysis to find the association between capital budgeting techniques and the financial performance of companies listed at the Nairobi Stock Exchange. Forecasting model was developed and tested for accuracy in obtaining predictions. The finding of the study indicated that model was significant. This is demonstrated in the part of the analysis where R2 for the association between capital budgeting techniques and the financial performance of companies listed at the Nairobi Stock Exchange was 76%. In other words the results revealed a consistent, significant positive association between capital budgeting techniques and corporate performance measured by ROA. 5.2 Conclusion The main purpose of this study were: firstly, to determine the Capital budgeting techniques used in investment appraisal decisions amongst the listed companies at the Nairobi Stock Exchange, and secondly to establish the relationship between capital budgeting techniques and the financial performance of companies listed at the Nairobi stock exchange. In order to achieve the first objective, a thorough literature review was done. Based on the literature it was found that companies used various capital budgeting techniques to appraise investment decisions.The results of the study show that majority of respondents employ the four capital budgeting techniques in the capital budgeting process these are; net present value, internal rate of return, accounting rate of return and the pay back method . A basic principle of finance theory is that the return required on an investment should reflect the riskiness of the investment and the returns available elsewhere from investments of similar risk. This leads to the use ways of analyzing risk. According to the study, majority of the respondents carried out risk analysis. The study shows that sensitivity analysis is highly favored when carrying out risk analysis. The implication for corporate managers is that accept-reject decisions may be biased in favour of high-risk investments and against low-risk investments, with the possibility that poor high-risk investments will be accepted and good low risk investments will be rejected. 46 The results of the regression analysis show that the capital budgeting techniques significantly affect firm performance, measured by ROA. Ranking of the individual independent variables, showed that, 1RR is highly related with ROA, followed byNPV, ARR. PB and controlled variables respectively .Theoretically, the use of sophisticated capital budgeting techniques should increase the effectiveness of the firms’ investments decision making. Thus, the results of this study concurred with the theory and the previous studies. 5.3: Policy Recommendations The following recommendations are given to policy makers. This research finds that managers feel that capital budgeting is at times implemented without adequate education to implementers and ill fitting financial and operating structures. It thus recommends that proper understanding of the demand placed by implementation of these projects on the resources of a firm should be well assessed before implementation It is important for the management of the companies to get involved in training and skill development especially in areas of capital budgeting and investments. Training consultants could be used to train the employees who will be advising the management on the best investment alternatives. In addition, low levels of financial literacy can impact the degree to which companies use investment appraisal techniques. The government through the ministry of finance should broaden its efforts to ensure that a high level of financial literacy is universal to company managers. Government agencies such as NSE and capital markets authority should therefore organize training for newdy listed companies. Further studies could investigate if industry differences and the age of the firm could have a major impact on the use of investment appraisal techniques. From the research findings, the respondents strongly advocated that policies should not always from up-down. The need for employee participation in making investment decisions that affect their duties was strongly advocated for. 47 This research therefore recommends increased consultation and dialogue between the implementing employees and management. The management staff to device methods o f increasing employee participation. 5.4 Limitations of the Study In the course of the study, the following limitations were encountered; The target population was not easily accessed. This was hampered by company policies and bureaucracy regarding their information outflow. The formal procedure is that a document received should go through all the steps until the relevant officer ascertains that the information being sought can or cannot be given out. In some cases the researcher had to go through this to access to data. This was found to be too long. This seriously impeded the researcher’s effort to conduct the census. Respondents from mostly the private companies were reluctant to give information about their operations; this they thought was too much beyond what is required by law and were hence reluctant to give information. In some situation the company legal officer had to be called upon to assess the implication of the data being sought. Another potential limitation was the reliability of the data obtained. Inaccuracies could have resulted from the survey respondents misunderstanding the survey questions or terminologies used in capital budgeting. Indeed the researcher had to in many cases explain the meaning of some of the terminologies to the respondents who then could attempt to accord the right response. 48 $.5 Suggestions for Further Research Since the study focused on the companies listed in Nairobi stock exchange, it is recommended that a similar study be carried out in other companies not listed in the Nairobi stock exchange to test the same relationship between capital budgeting techniques and their financial performance. Further studies are needed to test the relationship between the capital budgeting techniques and firm performance by use of a different firm financial performance measurement other than ROA for instance earnings per share (EPS). Future research could also focus on a specific industry to obtain homogeneous results. The capital budgeting practices of listed companies are not likely to be representative of all Kenyan companies. This is so because the study only focused on the listed companies ignoring the unlisted companies. Thus it is recommended that another study be done in companies not listed at the NSE to test the same objective. 49 REFERENCES Arnold, T. & Shockley.R(2003). Real Options, Corporate Finance, and the Foundations o f Value Maximization, Journal o f Applied Corporate Finance 15 (No. 2), 82-88. Axelsson, H,Jakovicka, J & Kheddache, M .(2002). Capital Budgeting Sophistication and Performsnce- A Puzzling Relationship; Unpublished Doctoral Thesis, Graduate Business School, Goteborg University. Bendor, J., T. M. Moe & K. W. Shotts (2001/ Recycling the Garbage Can: An Assessment o f the Research Program, American Political Science Review, Vol. 95, pp. 169-90. Berry, W.D,( 1990). The Confusing Case o f Budgetary Incrementalism : Too Many Meanings for a Single Concept,Journal of Politics, Vol.52,pp. 167-96. Copeland, Thomas E. (1979). 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(2002/ M ulti-Year Perspective in Budgeting a n d Public Investment Planning, Draft background paper for discussion at Session III. 1 of the OECD Global Forum on Sustainable Development (Paris: OECD). Tarschys.D. (2002). Time H orizons in Budgeting, OECD Journal on Budgeting, Vol. 2, No. 2. Yao,L. Smid,P & Hermes, N. (2006). Capital Budgeting Practices: A Comparative Study o f the Netherlands and China\ Unpublished Master Business, University of Groningen 53 [0V£RSnY OF NAIROBI SCHOOL OF BUSINESS k£BA PROGRAM - LOWtR KABETE CAMPUS Telephone: 020-20J9162 P.O.Box 30197 Telegrams: "Varsiiy". Nairobi Nairobi. Kenya Telex: 22093 Varsity_______________________________________________ DATE.. 1 0 _H t e P j ' 201 .0 TO WHOM IT MAY CONCERN The bearer of this letter...... .............................................................................. Registration No:...... D G . i / y o S i l f ^ o o j ............................... is a Master of Business Administration (MBA) student of the University of Nairobi. He/siwr is required to submit as part of his/fuef coursework assessment a research project report on a management problem. We would like the students to do their projects on real problems affecting firms in Kenya. We would, therefore, appreciate if you assist him/her by allowing him/her to collect data in your organization for the research. The results of the report will be used solely for academic purposes and a copy of the same will be availed to the interviewed organizations on request. • DIVERSITY OF NAIROBI SCIiOOL OF 8 U S IN --J MSA OFFICE DR. W.N. IRAK! p. O. Box 30187 CO-ORDINATOR, MBA P R C flS ttW 1 ScHOol o f '% H4IROBI « Y c T E S s Na ir o b i01 97 QUESTIONNAIRE. PART A: General Information 1. Respondent’s N am e........................................ (Optional): 2. Name of organization...................................... 3. What is your designation? • Investment manager ( ) • Risk manager ( ) • Finance manager ( ) Any other (specify)...................................................... 4. For how many years have you worked for your current organization? i) Below 1 year ( ) ii) 2-3 years ( ) iii) 4-5 years ( ) iv) Over 6 ( ) 5. Legal status of your company State-owned ( ) Private company ( ) Public company ( ) Any other (specify)-------------------------------- 54 FART B: Use o f Capital Budgeting Techniques 6. Please indicate how frequently your company employs the following evaluation techniques when deciding which investment projects to pursue. Never Always Almost never Almost always 1 4 2 3 Net present value (NPV) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Internal rate of Return (IRR) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Accounting Rate of Return (ARR) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Payback period (PB) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Others specify 7. Has there been a major switch in techniques used over the last 5 years? ( ) Yes ( ) No If yes, please specify:---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8. Which of the following technique(s) does your company favor when deciding which investment projects to pursue? • Net present Value (NPV) ( ) • Internal Rate of Return (IRR) ( ) 55 • Accounting Rate o f Return (ARR) ( ) • Payback period (PB) ( ) Any other, specify 9. Please estimate the average proportion of total capital expenditures your company made in the last five years that should be classified within these three investment categories: • Replacement projects: % • Expansion projects- existing operations % • Expansion projects- new operations -----------% Total 100% 10. Is there at least one member of your staff assigned full-time to capital investment analysis? ( ) Yes ( )N o 11. Does your company possess a capital investment manual (written capital investment guidelines)? ( ) Yes ( )No 12. Which technique does your company use to assess a project’s risk? (please tick one per line) 56 Never Always Almost never Almost always 1 4 2 3 Scenario analysis ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Sensitivity analysis ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Decision tree analysis ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Simulation analysis ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 13. Which o f the following approaches is used in your company to determine the minimum acceptable rate of return (discount rate) to evaluate proposed capital investments? (Please tick one only). • Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) ( ) • Cost of debt ( ) • Cost of equity capital ( ) • An arbitrarily chosen figure is used ( ) Any other rate (please specify)---------------------------------------- End of Questionnaire. Thank you. 57 LIST OF COM PANIES LISTED AT NSE (AS AT 30™ JUNE 2010) Agriculture 1. Rea Vipingo Ltd. 2. Sasini Tea & Coffee Ltd. 3. Kakuzi Ltd. Commercial and Services 1. Access Kenya Group 2. Marshalls E.A. Ltd. 3. Car & General Ltd. 4. Hutchings Biemer Ltd. 5. Kenya Airways Ltd. 6. CMC Holdings Ltd. 7. Uchumi Supermarkets Ltd. 8. Nation Media Group Ltd. 9. TPS (Serena) Ltd. 10. ScanGroup Ltd. ! 1. Standard Group Ltd. 12. Safaricom Ltd. Finance and Investment 1. Barclays Bank of Kenya Ltd. 2. CFC Stanbic Bank Ltd. 3. Housing Finance Ltd. 4. Centum Investment Ltd. 5. Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd. 6. National Bank of Kenya Ltd. 7. Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Co. Ltd 8. Diamond Trust Bank o f Kenya Ltd. 9. Jubilee Insurance Co. Ltd 10. Standard Chartered Bank Ltd. 11. NIC Bank Ltd. 12. Equity Bank Ltd. 13. Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd 14. The Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd. 15. Kenya Re-Insurance Ltd. 10 I n d u s t r i a l a n d A l l i e d I. Athi River Mining Ltd. . BOC Kenya Ltd. . British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd. 4. Carbacid Investments L td.. 5. E.A. Cables Ltd. 6. E.A. Breweries Ltd. 7. Sameer Africa Ltd. 8. Kenya Oil Ltd. 9. Mumias Sugar Company Ltd. 10. Unga Group Ltd. II. Bamburi Cement Ltd. 12. Crown berger (K) Ltd. 13. E.A Portland Cement Co. Ltd. 14. Kenya Power & Lighting Co. Ltd. 15. Total Kenya Ltd. 16. Eveready East Africa Ltd. 17. Kengen Ltd.