Comparison Between Lee-Carter Model And Negative Binomial Regression Model In Forecasting Male Mortality Data Of Usa(1980-2020)
Abstract
People living in America today are living longer compared to yester years; this is due to
reduced mortality rates and increase in life expectancy. According to (Dye & Williams,
2010) generally mortality rates have continuously been declining over the years. However,
other courses of death like suicide rate have been soaring high for the last 25 years which
is a worrying trend for both the state and the insurance providers. According to the
study report conducted between 2011 and 2012 by (Hoyert & Xu, 2012) they recorded an
improvement in life expectancy by 0.1 years from 78.7 to 78.8 years. This was due to the
improvement in the health sector in the country. This constant change in mortality rates is
proving to be a challenge to the insurance industry and pension providers in designing the
right products for their consumers. In this thesis we are going to compare two predictive
models, the Negative Binomial Regression model and Lee-Carter model to determine which
model gives a better t in forecasting male mortality of the USA.
Publisher
University of Nairobi
Rights
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 United StatesUsage Rights
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/us/Collections
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