Effects of Economic Development on Fertility in Kenya

Abstract

The purpose of this research project was to study empirically the effects of economic development on fertility in Kenya. This was necessitated by the fact that Kenya’s economy has been improving and the country recently was classified as middle lower income nation. Improvement in economy was coming at the backdrop of declining fertility rates in the country that was once considered to possess the highest fertility rates globally in the mid-1980s. Despite the changes that had taken place and the availability of quality data from census, no study had been done at the macro level to establish the effects of changes in Kenya’s economy as a determinant of fertility rates as has been done in developed countries. The study used demographic transition theory while applying threshold regression analysis to examine the relationship. The result confirmed the findings of other studies that economic development is a significant factor in fertility changes and that counties that were experiencing better economic performance had statistically significant lower TFR as opposed to counties that had lower CGDP. Economic development was however, more significant in low income counties than in higher income counties suggesting that at high income levels, other issues such as access to information becomes relevant in determining fertility rates. The study found out that in both low and high-income counties, CGDP had an inhibiting effect on total fertility rates even though the effects were more in counties with low income than in high income counties. Exposure to mass media was also found to have a negative effect on fertility. It was then concluded that economic development had a negative and significant effect on fertility in Kenya thus it was recommended that economic development programmes meant to improve county gross domestic product be enhanced as well as exposure to mass media.