Kenyan agriculture: toward 2000

Abstract

The work draws heavily on data from the Kenyan Ministry of Agriculture annd from the Integrated Rural Survey and Urban Food Purchasing data base of the Central Bureau of Statistics. It provides a detailed examination of the general economic situation and income distribution in rural and urban Kenya and the patterns of food demand deriving from them. It then looks at the current agricultural production structure and estimates production possibilities up to the year 2000. Finally production and consumption projections are compared and policy implications are examined. The population of Kenya is expected to double by the year 2000 to around 3 mill, but to remain predominantly rural (73%). Income distribution is more unequal in the towns than in rural areas though heavily skewed in both. The percentage of the population below a minimum nutritional level is expected to fall from 16% to 10%, though this will represent an increase in absolute numbers. At present smallholder farms are mainly growing maize as a subsistence crop, intercropping with pulses and beans and using virtually no modern inputs. Large farms grow coffee, tea and sisal for export and some maize for the urban market. Higher acreages, greater yields and improved technologies are expected to increase domestic production to keep up with demand from a higher population and beter incomes by 2000. Such changes are technically feasible, but the institutional factors may have a limiting effect.