Investigation of forecasting potential of aircraft weather hazards over Kenya using numerical model

Abstract

The study investigates the forecasting potential of aircraft weather hazards over Kenya using numerical model. The various causes of accidents/incidents are identified using analyzed investigated weather-related aviation hazards data obtained from Kenya Civil Aviation Authority database system from 2008 through 2014. The significance of the contribution by the weather hazards was examined. The parameters analyzed included the Winds, Temperature, Relative humidity, Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Lifted Index (LI), and Dew Point Temperature. Their combined effect is able to provide the means of identifying the areas of strong convection. The China based geostationary Fengyun (FY2E) Satellite and Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) Infrared 10.8 imagery were used to identify the dominant cloud types and the distribution of the convective cells during the dry and wet seasons. A case study was conducted to forecast cumulonimbus clouds on a particular date, and satellite imagery was used to verify that the event occurred as was forecasted. The model was run on a grid point distance resolution of 10 km and runs finite differencing scheme, based on Taylor series. GrADS which is embedded on the model upon installation, was used as the default post processing tool. Key findings revealed that Wind, Fog, Turbulence, Heavy rain showers, and low ceiling influenced aircraft operations. It was shown that the majority of the hazards were linked with cumulonimbus clouds. Landing phase of flight affected aviation most. It was also noted that clouds of all types do not appear in the sky at the same time and a few clouds are rarely ever seen whereas some are only seen during certain s