Past and future climate trends, impacts of charcoal production and adaptation options for lower Jubba of Somalia

Abstract

Climate is changing at an alarming rate threatening the critical pillars for environmental, social and economic development. Somalia is one of the countries of the GHA that has faced unique climate variability and climate change challenges, within severe conflict environment. Charcoal production is causing serious land cover changes that could have far reaching socio-economic implications. The objective of this study was to examine the past and future climate trends and understand the impacts of charcoal production and the adaptation options for communities in Lower Jubba. Rainfall and temperature data extended from 1981-2012. The data were subjected to various statistical analyses including trend analysis. Analysis of land cover changes in Lower Jubba was done using remotely sensed data from Landsat imagery. Different images from 1993/95, 2000 and 2014 were analysed and compared. Information on the role of charcoal for the communities in Lower Jubba was collected through a survey. Descriptive, multiple univariate and multivariate analyses was done on the primary data. The future climate change scenarios for Lower Jubba region was studied using the downscaled CORDEX RCMs data available at ICPAC for both the historical and future period of 1950 – 2005 and 2006 – 2100 respectively, targeting the projected periods of 2030, 2050 and 2070. Possible societal impacts of the future climate for Lower Jubba of Somalia were assessed based on the results from analysis of projected climate data. The results showed high degree of inter-annual variability of rainfall with recurrences in high/low value extremes that are often associated with floods/droughts. Some of them occurred during El Niño/La Niña years when the observed rainfall and temperature anomalies seemed to have extended over most of Somalia. Results showed a 50% reduction in forest cover and a 17% reduction in woodlands between 1993/95 and 2014. If business continues as usual with deforestation, the area could face complete deforestation in the future. A survey on the community’s perspectives showed that the rapid deforestation in Lower Jubba was primarily due to charcoal production. The survey linked most of the local socioeconomic challenges to climate change. Limited adaptation practices were found in the study area. The projected rainfall anomalies over Lower Jubba indicated dominance of meteorological drought in 2030. Significant increase in rainfall was exhibited in 2050 and 2070. Evidence of trend increase in minimum and maximum temperature was observed in the analysis. Projections from all the models showed increase in minimum and maximum temperatures in all seasons and sub periods. Global temperature increase worldwide has been associated with global warming. Due to limitation in the length of data used, no distinct climate change signal could however be delineated from the observed past rainfall and temperature characteristics over Lower Jubba.