Projections of School-age Population and Implications on Staffing and Educational Facilities in Kajiado County, 2010-2030

Abstract

The prime objective of this study was to generate projections of school-age population and analyze their implications on staffing and educational facilities in Kajiado County over the projection period, 2010 to 2030. The school-age population corresponded to the three educational levels namely: pre-primary - population age 3-5 years; primary - population age 6-13; and secondary – population age 14-17 years. On the other hand, the specific objectives were to obtain the projected number of teachers, classrooms and toilets required in Kajiado County over the same projection period. To realize these objectives, the study projected the 2009 Kajiado County population from 2010 to 2030 using the cohort component method after conducting data quality assessment. From the projected county population, the first four age groups (0-4, 5-9, 10-14 and 15-19) were split into single years so as to obtain projections of school-age population. Thereafter, the study applied the recommended standards of Pupil Teacher Ratio (PTR), class size and Pupil Toilet Ratio (PToR) (separate for boys and girls) to obtain the projected number of teachers, classrooms and toilets respectively. The study revealed that, school-age population in Kajiado County would rise from 290,321 in 2010 to 434,254 in 2030 representing an increase of 49.6 percent. The primary level accounted for the highest number of school-age population in the county, owing to the fact that it covers a wider age bracket. The study further projected a rising demand for teachers, classrooms and toilets separate for boys and girls at the three educational levels in the County. Based on the study findings, the study recommends the national and county governments to ensure availability of adequate teachers, classrooms and toilets so as to meet the demands of rising schoolage population in Kajiado County. The study also recommends for further research focusing on this area in other counties where such research has never been conducted because of demand of socio-economic projections for purposes of planning, advocacy, research, monitoring and evaluation.