Regional Temporal and Spatial Analysis of Anti-doping Rule Violations of Athletes

Abstract

Background: The number of regional athletes reported with Anti-doping Rule Violations (ADRVs) is a cause for international concerns. Understanding the trends and drivers of ADRVs among athletes is important in developing strategies to curb it. Information on doping from secondary sources was retrieved from World Anti-doping Agency (WADA) for a period of 14 years (2003 – 2016) for time series analysis and for 4 years (2013 – 2016) for Regional Anti-doping Organization (RADO) Zone V spatial analysis. Data analysis: Exploratory data analysis was carried out to identify any time series features in the data then followed by analysis using Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) sets of models following Box-Jenkins procedure. Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs) were analyzed with their annual relative frequencies and consistency of use. Granger causality analysis of prize money on ADRVs was also performed. Findings: The ADRVs in Africa showed a decreasing trend. Anabolic steroids were the most frequently and consistently used PEDs in the study period. There was no Granger causality observed regarding prize money and ADRVs for Africa and six other regions globally. However ADRVs from Paris and Sydney WADA approved laboratories were Granger caused by prize money. In the RADO Zone V, the highest computed four year averages of ADRVs were from Kenya (11) and Egypt (21) with Ethiopia which produces many track athletes showing low numbers (3). The spatial distribution of doping data in the RADO Zone V was virtually random. Conclusion: Although the ADRVs for Africa and Kenya are on the decrease, the numbers in Kenya were considerably high. Ethiopia is comparable to Kenya in terms of athletic prowess yet ADRVs in Kenya were about 4 times those recorded for Ethiopia. This calls for intensified doping control measures in Kenya and benchmarking with Ethiopia.