Effects of Exceedance of Thunderstorm-related Phenomena Limits on Aircraft Operations at Selected Airports in Kenya

Abstract

The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of exceedance of thunderstorm-related phenomena limits, including heavy rainfall, surface winds and visibility, on aviation operations at selected airports in Kenya. The rainfall data was obtained from Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) while the crosswinds, tailwinds and visibility data were obtained from Meteorological Terminal Air Report (METAR) in the Ogimet website. The accidents data were obtained from Ministry of Transport, Infrastructure, Housing, Urban Development and Public Works; State Department of Transport; Air Investigation Department while Information about incidents was acquired from the Kenya Airports Authority (KAA). The methods that were used in this research include; Temporal Trend analysis, Exceedance Value Method, Correlation and Regression Analyses to study the effects of thunderstorm-related phenomena on air transportation in Kenya. The period of study was 2008 to 2017 for MAM season. The findings indicated that western region received more extreme rainfall than any other part of the country. Visibility was worse in Nairobi as compared to the other regions; the reason could have been because of more industrialization and the Capital's urbanization. The study recommends that the airports and airstrips that act as alternate aerodromes to the ones that were studied be assessed for vulnerability to Thunderstorm (TS)-related phenomena and if these aerodromes are less vulnerable to thunderstorm-related phenomena, be expanded so as to accommodate aircraft from those airports that are more vulnerable to TS-related phenomena. This will reduce costs of aircraft operations’ negative effects, enhanced profits, safety and improved employment opportunities. This is expected to cause fast economic growth and sustainable development.