Drought, Vulnerability and Adaptation: Risk of Food and Livelihoods Insecurity for Pastoralists and Agro-pastoralists in Borana Zone, Southern Ethiopia

Abstract

Ethiopia. a country in the Horn of Africa, is observing an increase in natural disasters, especially droughts. The impact of natural disasters and the ensuing economic harm they have caused have grown dramatically over the last three decades on a global scale. Ethiopia's prevailing acute food insecurity has gotten worsen because of the COVID-19 pandemic, desert locust’s invasion, climate disasters. Climate hazards frequently affect pastoralists and agro-pastoralists in the southern Ethiopian of Borana Zone, endangering their traditional means of subsistence. The pastoralists and agro-pastoralists group are increasingly vulnerable long-term climate change particularly droughts due to long-term changes in precipitation, temperature, and extreme events. However, scholars studying climate risk in the area have not adequately addressed the impact of these changes, on rangelands, livestock, and other significant livelihood resources. The study aims to assess current and future risks to food security and livelihoods in southern Ethiopia, specifically in Borna zone to support pastoralists and agro-pastoralists in developing strategies for adaptation to drought, given the accelerated rate of climate change. The study focuses on analyzing meteorological, remotely sensed, and local people's experiences on weather and drought patterns. The study examined temperature and blended rainfall from1983 to 2013 using statistical analyses like trend and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). To supplement the blended data, the absolute Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was also examined from 2002 to 2020. Trends were evaluated using both parametric and non-parametric analyses. Future climate projections for the Borana zone were evaluated using historical climate data and the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). Three of the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) that were selected for analysis, 1981–2010 and 1983–2010 as baseline for of precipitation and temperatures respectively. The IPCC’s future period of 2030, 2050, and 2080 serve as the standards for generating rainfall and temperature projections. The study collected representative household data from 11 districts in zone to assess food security and drought impact on livelihood assets. Landsat imagery was used to investigate of land cover changes, with images comparing between 1985 to 2020. The analysis aimed at to provide empirical evidence for the impact study, comparing images from 1985 to 2020 using 1985 as the starting point.

Climate risk was primarily caused by drought, rising temperatures, and rainfall variability. Extreme rainfall events, particularly in dry conditions becoming more frequent, with three to four dry conditions occurring every ten years. Low land areas were more susceptible to this risk because of greater seasonal and temporal rainfall variability and rising temperatures. Droughts that occurred every two years in the study area had an impact on livestock productivity and production by decreasing in the quantity and quality of feed and water resources. Land use and cover change have led to a decline in these vital resources since the late 1980s. Inadequate nutrition and water stress increase livestock mortality and morbidity, even in seemingly normal years. In years of drought, mortality and morbidity rates increase. During the 2016–2017 drought, sample households lost over 50% of their cattle, 25% of their small ruminants, and 20% of their camels due to malnutrition and dehydration. This led to a financial loss of almost 6.8 billion EB, or $300 million USD. The predicted increase in climate-related disaster events will exacerbate the food insecurity, promote maladaptation, and make it harder to attain the Sustainable Development Goals if not addressed at the local or national level. This study highlights challenges faced by pastoralists and agro-pastoralists in implementing traditional strategies due to increasing rainfall variability, severity of drought, and land use and cover change. To mitigate the effects, pastoralists and agro-pastoralists are incorporating some livestock and crop production practices into their traditional strategies. The study provides recommendations for addressing the effects of droughts and climate change on livestock, agriculture, food security, water, and land for the various stakeholders and impacted sectors. The study underlines the importance of launching a participatory platform to discuss impact of climate change on Borana pastoral system and develop consensus. The platform will greatly benefit from the analysis and synthesis of the qualitative and climatic data provided in this study. This study recommends the use of mixed methodologies and local knowledge for a better understanding of climate risks, especially in the setting of restricted availability and quality of long-time series climate data.