Institute for Development Studies, University of Nairobi

This analysis traces the historical origins of Luo ethnic factor and discusses the role it has played in modern electoral politics in two rural constituencies in Nyanza, Bondo and Gem. The ethnic factor is seen to emerge from social transformation starting from the precolonial period and this took significantly different patterns in each of the two constituencies. The crux of the argument is that following the introduction of elections there has been a process of selective modernisation whereby both 'modern' and 'traditional' values have combined. The institution of elections is not therefore operating purely under the influence of values elections are associated with in western democracies especially the determining role of parties in electoral politics. The thrust of the analysis is therefore on the existence of social forces which have determined the somewhat surprising election results in the two constituencies. Furthermore, proper understanding of these social forces can help in the prediction, of outcomes of elections in these areas.