Diagnosis of the relationship between weather variables and occurrences of measles in soroti and serere districts
Abstract
It is commonly accepted that climate plays a role in the transmission of many infectious diseases,
some of which are among the most important causes of mortality and morbidity in developing
countries. Often these diseases occur in epidemics which may be triggered by variations in
climatic conditions that favour higher transmission rates.
This study aims to investigate the relationship between weather variables and the occurrence of
measles in Soroti and Serere districts in the Teso sub-region of North -Eastern Uganda. Monthly
data of patients with measles from 1995 to 20 I0 was collected from the District Health Office,
Soroti. Monthly data for rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative
humidity (at 0600 and 1200 UTC), and wind run for the same years was collected from the
Department of Meteorology, Kampala.
The methodologies included assessing the seasonal pattern of measles outbreak as well as
relating the weather parameters with the occurrences of measles at a lag on one season. It was
found out that an outbreak of measles occurs every two years on average. Analysis showed that
these weather variables have significant correlation with the occurrence of measles. There was
correlation of minimum temperatures in the November-February season with measles
occurrences in March-May season. There was also correlation of rainfall in March - May season
with measles occurrences in the July-October season. There was correlation of maximum
temperatures and relative humidity at 0600 UTe in the July-October season with measles
occurrences in the November-February season. Simple and multiple linear regression models
developed particularly with minimum temperatures, maximum temperatures, rainfall, a
combination of minimum temperatures and wind run, and a combination of maximum and
relative humidity at 0600 gave good estimates of measles incidences at one season's lag. The
relationship was taken to be significant at 0.05. This enabled the construction of a model to
predict measles occurrences.
Citation
Postgraduate diploma in meteorologySponsorhip
University of NairobiPublisher
Department of Meteorology University of Nairobi