| dc.description.abstract | The broad objective of this study was to identify the
reason(s) for the sluggish growth in annual seed cotton
output and failure to attain its targeted supply levels for
Central/Eastern Kenya over the last two to three decades. In
an attempt to achieve this objective the trend in annual seed
cotton output, yields of cotton, annual hectarage and nominal
and real producer cotton prices were examined in addition to
the supply response models for seed cotton for Embu,
Kirinyaga, Kitui, Machakos, Meru and Murang'a districts being
estimated. The estimated supply response models were used to
test two hypotheses: that cotton farmers have responded
perversely to increases in the real and nominal producer
cotton prices and that the degree of price responsiveness is
the same among cotton farmers in the six districts covered in
the study.
It was found out that annual seed cotton output rose
significantly over the last two to three decades for Embu,
Kitui, Machakos and Meru districts. It declined significantly
only for Murang'a District. Cotton yields declined
significantly over the same period for most of the above six
districts thereby occasioning the sluggish growth in annual
seed cotton output and failure to attain its targets for the
region over that period. The rise in the region's annual seed
cotton output was due to that of the hectarage of cotton for
most of the six districts.
The log-linear version of the Nerlovian Partial
Adjustment model was used to estimate the price elasticities
of supply for seed cotton for the six districts. The
hectarage of cotton during any year in a district was assumed
to be a function of the previous year's hectarage, lagged
seed cotton price, lagged producer price of the most
competing enterprise, current annual rainfall amounts and a
trend variable. The first and second hypotheses were tested
by means of student's t-test and Chow test, respectively. The
results of testing the first hypothesis were inconclusive for
most of six the districts while the second hypothesis was
rejected at the 0.01 level of significance. The estimated
price elasticities of supply for seed cotton for the region
varied from a short run value of 0.92 for Machakos District
to a long run value of 5.79 for Kitui District.
It is recommended that measures to improve the
prevailing low and declining cotton yields for the region be
identified and executed. The targets set for annual seed
cotton output in the National Development Plans need to be
realistic and district specific. The distortions in the
crop's factor and product markets also need to be removed.
The practising of district specific pricing policy or
relaxing the control on the nominal producer cotton price
could facilitate the attainment of the annual national
targets for seed cotton production. | en |
