Model for the estimation of initial conditions in a conflict environment

Abstract

Conflict can be described as a condition in which actions of one person prevent or compel some outcome at the resistance of the other. Quite often this can be seen as "two or more competing, often incompatible, responses to same event". Model-based predictions and formulations of trends are becoming more commonly used by researchers in the field of conflicts. These models to a great extent rely on fundamental or empirical models that are frequently described by systems of differential equations. In this paper, we have developed the dynamic time varying model for estimating control variables (initial conditions) which playa significant role in the success of conflict resolution estimated using a logistic probability model. A real conflict data set, from International Peace. Institute, Oslo (pRIO), was used to test on the workability of the model.