STATION SPECIFIC DOWNSCALING OF CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR AGRICULTURAL APPLICATIONS IN KENYA
Abstract
It has long been recognized that if society could have advance information on weather,
the adverse effects associated with it could be minimized. Prevalence of traditional forecast
practices in various parts of the world reflects the demand for long- range forecasts to manage
uncertainties associated with climate variability. Recent advancements in climate prediction
promise huge benefits for society. An analysis and understanding of the relationships
between the weather and agricultural production systems and especially the complexities
associated with the predictability, variability and distribution of rainfall is essential element
in improving crop production and agricultural planning decision making. The severe impacts
associated with extreme climate events can be reduced through good understanding of
the climate patterns of the previous events, enhanced monitoring and timely dissemination
of early warning as well as improved awareness on the usefulness of climate information
and prediction products in decision making. In this project, a model developed for converting
probability climate forecasts into atmospheric values is validated. Chapter one gives
an overview of seasonal downscaling of climate. The theoretical development of the model
is covered in chapter two while in chapter three the forecast has been translated into potential
rainfall amounts using the climatological forecast interpretation. Climate outlook
statements as produced by the Greater horn of Africa climate outlook forums for the years
1999-2002 are considered.
Citation
Bett,E.K.,November,2004.STATION SPECIFIC DOWNSCALING OF CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR AGRICULTURAL APPLICATIONS IN KENYA.Publisher
University of Nairobi College of Biological and Physical Sciences