| dc.description.abstract | The trends in the evolution of HIV/AIDS epidemic in Kenya has been tracked through annual
sentinel surveillance in antenatal clinics since 1990. Behaviors have been measured through
national Demographic and Health Surveys in 1993, 1998, and 2003. The surveillance data
indicates that prevalence has declined substantially starting in 1998. Nationally, adult prevalence
has declined from 10% in the late 1990s to under 7% today.
In the analysis, the 2009 Estimation Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum Packages
customized using Kenya’s data from VCT, ART, and PMTCT programmes were entered into the
EPP. Next entered into the EPP/Spectrum were birth rate, survival rate, adult mortality and
population growth rate. EPP was used to fit epidemic model to the data yielding trend curves for
the two sub groups: males and females. Next, the prevalence and incidence projections produced
by EPP were imported into Spectrum which generated final trends and calculated the number of
people living with HIV, new HIV infections, and AIDS related deaths.
From the results, the number of people living with HIV was increasing. This is due to the
positive growth rate in the population. The prevalence trends increased to a pick value before
decreasing steadily to the current values. The new infections of adults aged 15-49 constantly
increased. This too is due to the ever increasing overall population in Kenya. The incidence rates
decreased due to the interplay between several factors including the effects of ART and PMTCT.
In conclusion, there is need to scale up the roll out of the PMTCT and sensitization programmes
on awareness as there is evidence that these would greatly serve to bring down the prevalence
and incidence rates to the desired zero rates. | en_US |
