Determinants of nuptiality patterns in Kenya
Dilnesahu, Mulugeta Z
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The focus of this study is to establish the patterns of nuptiality and to examine the factors which determine the patterns. The analysis is conducted at various levels, first at national level in which the general trend in the patterns of nuptiality is discussed: Second at provincial and district level to examine the regional patterns of nuptiality. Studies have shown that fertility can be reduced by reducing the proportion married and by raising age at marriage. The interest in conducting this research arises from this relevance attached to nuptiality. The study places more emphasis to female nuptiality patterns. The main objective in this study is to examine the major determinants of current nuptiality patterns in Kenya by using the two latest census data, i.e. 1979 and 1989. In examining the determining factors we used only 1989 census data and the variables measured were level of education, place of residence, sex ratio and employment. The analysis in this study is based on Hajnal's SMAM technique, Agarwala's, synthetic cohort, which is based on a 10 year marriage experience, Sadiq's hypothetical cohort which is based on a hypothetical data obtained from two censuses. Regression analysis is applied to estimate the determinant variables. The findings shown that age at marriage is increasing in all the districts of Kenya. The study has also found that there is no significant change in the incidence of marriage where more than 95 percent of the female population is married at the age of 50. The study clearly demonstrated the role of female second eduction in raising age at marriage. We can assert that postponing marriage among the educated population is on the rise. Urbanization is the other important factor considered to a affect nuptiality. Policy measures should involve to further encourage Kenyan women to go to school and increase the prospects of there participation in the modern economic activity.