Estimation of fertility levels in Kenya using the reverse survival techniques
In direct technique of estimating fertility levels can broadly be divided into categories. The first category used the retrospective data on the mean number olf children ever born and the births during the last year by mother age group. These data are used to yield adjusted estimates of current age specific fertility rates and the total fertility rate. In the second category , sex –age distribution of a population along with information on the rate of growth and a life table available at a point on time are used to estimate crude birth rate and the gross reproduction rate and hence the total fertility rate. In this study the methods that fall in the second category have been used Ee have specifically used the reverse survival procedures for these techniques. The fertility measures are the birth rates which are determined on the basis of the reverse projection of persons in the proup0-4, 5-9, 0-9 and 0-11 years at the time of enumeration. The reverse survival technique and some of its expression have been applied to the 1979 census for Kenya at national provincial and district level, and the results described using exploratory data analysis (EDA)procedures. from the results of the thesis we have observed the reverse survival method estimates of birth rate agree within approximation errors the country’s estimates of birth rates are 16.3 births per 1000population (46.3/1000) 49.5/1000. 48.6 /1000 and 49.8/1000for respective age groups 0-4, 5-9,0-9 and 0-11years. The arithmetic mean of these estimates is 48.56/1000. The coale’s method gave 48.77/1000 while the Venkatachanya and Tejku’s method gave 50.25/1000.The TFR for Kenya by Rolo’s method is about 6.20. At sub-regional level, central province has the highest TFR of about 7.44….