Population projection and its implication on provision of health services in Kisumu District, Kenya
Mutunga, Timothy D M
MetadataShow full item record
A population projection provides a basis upon which sound planning, monitoring and evaluation of projects is done. This is because before a project is set up, the real issues affecting the target community and their magnitude in terms of geographical region and impacts are identified, and goals set. Monitoring and Evaluation of such projects is based on how many people benefit from the services offered. This project sought to establish the implications of the projected population for Kisumu District up to the year 2030 on provision of medical services. The study used the adjusted population and housing census data carried out in 1999. In the absence of information on future population trends in Kisumu District, the study attempted to answer two research questions. The first was what are the projected population figures for Kisumu District between 2005 and 2030.Secondly, what is the implication of this projected population on the number of health facilities and personnel as recommended by the Ministry of Health. The study set out to achieve two specific objectives, first to project the population of Kisumu District from 2005 to the year 2030 and secondly, to establish the number of health facilities and personnel required by the projected population. This study used the component method of population projection because it includes the three components of population change; fertility, mortality and migration. The research findings addressed the two research questions and achieved the research objectives. Kisumu District population is estimated to increase from 747,616 in 2005 to 1,277,784 people in 2030. There will be need to increase the number of health facilities from thirty-three in 2009 to fifty by 2030. Health personnel should also be increased from five hundred and twenty four in 2009 to one thousand and ten in 2030 to offer quality medical services to the projected population then.