Forecasting Patient Needs in a Donor Funded Health Care Project in Kenya
Njoroge, Brian M.
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Forecasts are crucial for practically all economic and business decisions. The focus of this research paper is in the area of forecasting. The research approach adopted is a case study of the Nutrition and HIV Program (NHP), which is a donor funded public health project. The general objective of this paper was to forecast the demand for patient needs in a donor funded project. Specifically, this paper sought to establish a suitable forecasting method that can accurately predict demand for nutrition commodities. In order to establish a more suitable forecasting method, Univariate Box – Jenkins (UBJ) methodology was used and two models were tested and Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA (0, 1, 2)) model provided a better fit and was chosen as the model of choice for a short run forecast horizon. The main conclusion drawn from this paper is that, UBJ-ARIMA models are useful as benchmarks for forecasting and therefore they should be viewed as complements to a reliable forecasting process. This paper recommends that public health projects need to consider adopting business forecasting methods that will provide a better glimpse of the future based on historical events rather than relying on disease morbidity data trends.