Primary school age population projections for counties in Central Province, Kenya
The main objective of the study was to carry out a population projection for the schoolage population of Central Province. In order to achieve this goal, the study employed the use of Cohort Component Method to project the population at National and Provincial levels and thereafter used the Ratio Method in obtaining the projected primary school-age population at county level. The study used the 2009 population census data after subjecting it to data quality assessment and the UN Accuracy Index to detect the degree of accuracy. From the 2009 census data, Kenya's population was 38.5 million people. The study projected that this population will increase from 38.5 million people in 2010, to 50 million people in 2020, and 62.4 million people by 2030. After projecting for the national, then followed by provincial projections, the study later narrowed down to Central Province, which was to provide the required projections for its respective counties. The projected provincial population shows that, Central Province population is set to increase from 4.5 million in 2010, to 5.1 million in 2015, to 5.7 million in 2020, to 6.3 million in 2025 and 7 million by 2030. After obtaining the projected population for Central Province, the projected primary school-age population was computed. The study used the projected Central Province primary school-age population to generate the projected primary school-age population for the respective counties of Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang'a, Nyandarua, and Kiambu. The study found out that, in Central Province, there was a population of 813,090 pupils in 2010, and it is set to increase to 965,000 pupils in 2020 and 1.08 million pupils by 2030. The study did also project the number of teachers, classrooms and toilets in Central Province using the indicators/norms (PTR, PCR and PToR) as provided by the Ministry of Education. The demand for teachers in Central Province will grow at an average rate of 1.6 percent per annum while that of classrooms was observed to grow at a rate of 32.5 percent within the 20 years period of the study. The demand for toilets will continue to be on the increase with more demand inclined to the girls across the entire Province.