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Forecasting Pneumonia Mortality in Children Under-5 at Kiambu County Referral Hospital 2019-2021
(University of Nairobi, 2022-11) Joan Muthoni Murage
Pneumonia has been a menace since the 20th century. By 2000, approximately 156,000,000 pneumonia cases occurred each year, with 151-million reported in developing countries. The cases in Sub-Saharan Africa were 35-million (Rudan 2008). Approximately 1,900,000 under-5s die yearly where half of this occurred in Africa (William 2002). By 2010, the pneumonia cases globally were approximately 120-million with 880,000 deaths occurring yearly, but the countries that contributed to the highest deaths were 15, with Kenya being among them (Biloglav Z 2008). Kenya had 30,000 under-5 deaths in 2008 caused by pneumonia alone. It was the second killer of under-5 children by 2012 (Black RE 2010). 2015, is when the cases had decreased to 102-million globally, and the deaths had reduced to 700,000 (McAllister DA 2019). It was still the second cause of death in 2017 among children under-5 in Kenya. Kenya’s pneumonia under-five mortality in 2018 was 15%. That is, the deadly disease killed almost 9000 children in 2018. This translates to more than one child dying per hour (UNICEF 2019). To model the past values of pneumonia mortality and forecast the future mortality of children under-5 at Kiambu County Referral Hospital using an ARIMA model. The main aim was to use an ARIMA model with this data; thus, the hypotheses formulated were to help identify the appropriate model. The hypothesis for the data at the Kiambu County Referral Hospital was 1. Pneumonia mortality ratio doesn’t have a constant mean and consistent variance, not stationary. versus Pneumonia mortality ratio has a constant mean and consistent variance, and is stationary. 2. Pneumonia mortality ratio has no trend. versus the pneumonia mortality ratio has a trend. 3. Pneumonia mortality ratio doesn’t follow an ARIMA (p,d,q) model for forecast. versus Pneumonia mortality ratio follows an ARIMA (p,d,q) model for forecast. ARIMA (2,1,1) model with AIC 206 was used to achieve the objective. For the ARIMA model to be realized, the Dickey-Fuller test was used to test for a unit root. This test had a p-value 0.4469 > 0.05, implying data was not stationary. Differencing was done once; therefore, d=1. ACF and PACF were used to form the order of p and d in p,d, and q. A simple moving average of n=8 revealed the trend was downward in 2019, upward and downward in 2020, and has been upward since 2021. Out of 217 deaths, boys were 89 (41%), and girls were 128 (59%). The age group where most deaths occurred was 0-12 months, with 81.6%, while the other 13-36 months and 37 to ≤ 60 had 15.2% and 3.2%, respectively. The forecast for May-July was done, predicted, and the actual values were within the confidence interval. ARIMA (2,1,1) had MASE < 1; thus, the model gave an acceptable forecast. Pneumonia mortality was found to be increasing from the ARIMA (2,1,1) forecast, even if there was a pandemic going on from May to December 2022.
Introduction: Special Issue on the 16th Nilo-Saharan Linguistics Colloquium
(Department of Linguistics and Languages UoN, 2026-03-19) Compes, I.; Oduor, J. A. N
The papers in this collection result from talks that were presented at the 16th NiloSaharan Colloquium, Nairobi, which was organized by a team of colleagues from the Institute of African Studies and Egyptology, Faculty of Arts and Humanities, University of Cologne and the Department of Linguistics and Languages, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, University of Nairobi from 29th to 31st August 2023.1 The conference was entitled “Linguistic, Sociocultural, and Indigenous Perspectives” and, as the title indicates, it offered a comprehensive and expansive view on the diversity of Nilo-Saharan studies, encompassing panels on phonetics, phonology, morphology, syntax, and semantics, as well as sociolinguistics and historical reconstruction. The panels, which promoted an indigenous perspective, treated issues such as the pragmatics of war and conflict and cattle color terms, as well as literature and heritage studies, where researchers from fields beyond language sciences and linguistics presented on topics as diverse as archeology, forgotten manuscripts, Bible translation, art, film, and architecture, encouraging lively discussions. The conference also included a special round table on “Heritage and/as language” with participants of the Nairobi-Aswan-Cologne Summer School, chaired by Heinz Felber and Anne Storch
Affective Publics, Strategic Framing, and Reputational Dynamics: A Sentiment Analysis of Directorate of Criminal Investigation on X (@DCI_Kenya)
(University of Nairobi, 2025-11) Josphat Ng’enoh
This study examines public discourse on X (formerly Twitter) directed toward the Directorate of Criminal Investigations (@DCI_Kenya) between July 2023 and June 2025, analyzing how sentiment, thematic framing, and institutional engagement shape digital reputation. Employing a mixed-methods design, the research utilized a census approach to analyze 165,842 public replies alongside qualitative and computational techniques, including multilingual text normalization and frame analysis. The findings reveal a structurally complex sentiment landscape: while neutral replies dominate in volume, they frequently mask sarcasm and distrust. Fear, despite its low frequency, exerts disproportionate influence by accelerating the viral reframing of institutional narratives. Thematic analysis indicates that posts regarding public safety and gender-based violence attract heightened emotional density, whereas justice-oriented frames encourage deeper interpretive engagement. Significantly, the study found the DCI’s communication to be largely non-dialogic, characterized by a formal tone, minimal follow-up, and limited responsiveness to emotionally charged feedback. Reputation emerged not as a static asset but as a dynamic interplay of early emotional convergence and response timing; delayed institutional replies often allowed negative frames to consolidate, while positive sentiment proved fragile without narrative reinforcement. The study contributes to scholarship on digital policing in African contexts and offers practical recommendations to improve emotional monitoring, narrative anchoring, and dialogic responsiveness, thereby enhancing institutional credibility.
A Success Story of the AWSC Women’s Economic Empowerment Hub
(University of Nairobi, African Women Studies Centre, 2025) African Women Studies Centre
Kenya has made notable progress toward gender equality, yet women continue to face deep-rooted structural and socio-economic barriers that limit their full economic participation. Women account for nearly half of Kenya’s labor force but remain underrepresented in formal employment and face lower earnings, limited access to finance, and a disproportionate burden of unpaid care work. In response, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation supported the establishment of the Women’s Economic Empowerment Hub (WEE Hub) at the University of Nairobi’s African Women Studies Centre (AWSC) to generate gender-responsive evidence, influence policy, and promote sustainable economic empowerment for women. Implemented over the period September 2020 to August 2025, the WEE Hub combined rigorous research, active policy engagement, and knowledge dissemination to address systemic barriers, promote equitable opportunities, and strengthen advocacy for gender-responsive economic transformation.
Women’s Experiences in the Creation of New Societies in Kenya
(University of Nairobi, African Women Studies Centre, 2016-03) Wanjiku Mukabi Kabira
This paper summarizes the measures women undertook to enshrine affirmative action in the constitution and the justifications for their efforts. It argues that women must consolidate these gains by learning from the past, identifying a clear objective for future advocacy, and working together to achieve that goal. It demonstrates that an increased number of women in parliament has a qualitative impact on legislative action. It proposes proportional representation as a possible goal that the push to increase the number of women in parliament can work towards.