Climate Change, Resource Scarcity And Violent Conflict In The Horn Of Africa A Case Study Of Turkana County, Kenya

Abstract

Climate change is an environmental issue. However, it is today regarded more as a threat to peace and security rather than being just an environmental problem. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has identified climate change as a major threat to Africa. Climate change has also taken a centre stage in the international political arena. According to the Climate Change Vulnerability Index for 2015, Africa has the largest number of countries, standing at seven out of ten, which are considered to be most at risk from climate change. Climate change is amplifying the risk of violent conflict and civil unrest due to scarcity of food, water, land and energy. The continent of Africa produces the least amount of greenhouse gases which is the major contributor to global warming yet there is evidence to show that climate change precipitation has affected food production and availability of fresh water thus negatively affecting the health, livelihoods and overall security of people in Africa. Natural resource based conflicts between communities are on the rise due to climate change induced resource scarcity. In the Horn of Africa region, desertification has resulted into violent conflict between herders and farmers because of pasture and arable land scarcity. The region is affected by declining agricultural yields and prolonged droughts. Turkana County which lies in the semi-arid North western Kenya is greatly affected by the increased temperatures and unpredictable rainy seasons. There is pressure on water resources and grazing land resulting in diminished livestock herds and frequent violent conflict among Turkana communities and also with their neighbours such as the Pokot, the Samburu, the Orma of Ethiopia Toposa of South Sudan and Karamojong of Uganda. Competition for the scarce food will definitely lead to conflict and insecurity. This study examined the link between climate change, resource scarcity and violent conflict in Turkana County and suggested possible conflict resolutions in terms of climate change governance in order to enhance adaptation and coping mechanisms among the Turkana people. The objectives of the study were to establish the impacts of climate change on resource scarcity in the Horn of Africa, determine the effects of resource scarcity on violent conflict particularly in Turkana and to critically assess the role of climate governance in resolving violent conflict in this region. The study relied on Homer Dixon‘s Environmental Resource Scarcity Theory to explain the links between climate change, resource scarcity and violent conflict. The theory assumes that resource scarcity is a product of environmental hazards that lead to insufficient supply, too much demand or an unequal distribution of a resource that forces some sector of a society into a condition of deprivation and violence. The scarcities are as a result of population growth, economic development, pollution and climate change. The study employed both secondary and primary data through making use of expert interviews with individuals who hold theoretical and practical knowledge on quantifiable environmental problems, notably environmental scarcity - farmland, water, grassland, and fish to establish their influence to conflict in Turkana County. The study targeted fifteen key informants distributed across climate research, security, and academia and non-governmental organizations. Interviews and discussions were transcribed and qualitatively analysed to draw explanatory patterns and generalize the assumptions that underpin this case study. The key issues as mentioned above were the causal links of climate change, environmental resource scarcity and violent conflict. Further the research looked at ways to resolve violent conflict through climate change governance strategies.