An Assessment of the Effects of Climate Variability on Tea Production in Kericho County: a Case Study of James Finlay’s (Kenya) Limited Tea Estates, Kericho, Kenya

Abstract

Climate variability may change the frequency and intensity of weather events which will likely challenge human and natural systems than the normal weather change. Agriculture is considered one of the most vulnerable systems than any other system to climate variability in Kenya, there is a particular concern over tea – a critically important sector for the economy, but which is also highly sensitive to climate variability and change. Given its economic importance, tea in Kenya is facing challenges under climate variability and change threats, raising concerns over the long run its viability. Already tea producers are facing reduced and erratic rainfalls, higher rate of hail or frost episodes as well as increasing temperatures that heavily affect yields and productivity levels. Over 500,000 smallholder tea producers are facing increased uncertainty about their future livelihood. It is for this reason that the study sought to assess the impacts of climate variability on Tea production in James Finlay’s (K) Limited tea estates in Kericho County, Kenya. The main objective of this study was to assess the effects of climate variability on Tea production in in Kericho County, Kenya. The specific objectives were to assess the effect of rainfall variability, temperature variations, and climate variability on tea quantity in Kericho County. Also, the study sought to determine the possible adaptation strategies on the impacts of climate variability on tea production in Kericho County. To achieve this goal an assessment of tea production vulnerability to climate variability using a statistical analysis linking historical climate data trends with tea yields in James Finlay’s (K) Limited based on time data series was carried out. Data on temperature and rainfall variability was obtained from the Kenya meteorological department stations in Kericho County, while data on tea yields was obtained from the respective tea estates management. The study found that rainfall variability has a positive and significant influence on tea production in Kericho County. However, rainfall below 1500mm and more than 2500mm can negatively affect tea production. The study found that variation in temperature has a positive and significant effect on tea production in Kericho County. However, temperatures below 190C and above 290C have a negative influence on tea production. Extreme cold conditions (190C) are detrimental to tea production and reduce efficiency of laborers in charge of tea leaves picking. Extreme hot conditions (290C) may add heat stress to tea leaves, increase pest infestation and disease prevalence thus reducing both quality and quantity of tea leaves. The study established that climate change adaptation strategies have a positive and significant effect on tea production in Kericho County. James Finlay’s (K) Limited was using crop varieties tolerant to drought, flood and heat, giving higher yield even under extreme climatic conditions. This study recommends that research institutes such as Kenya Agricultural Research and Livestock Organization (KARLO) and Tea Research Foundation (TRF) should research on better breeds of tea bushes with lower sensitivity to temperature variability. In addition, tea farmers should adopt adaptation strategies such as composting and mulching to prevent loss of water in the soil. In addition, farmers should use other strategies such as installation of drip irrigation to provide water to the seedlings during the dry seasons. Also, the study recommends that the issue of unpredictable rainfall can be addressed by considering other sources of moisture such as use of irrigation. However, for this to happen, cost benefit analysis of the available irrigation technologies must be carried out first.