Fertility in Kenya; Patterns and Determinants, 1989-2014

Abstract

Despite significant fertility reduction in the 1980s and 1990s, fertility decline in Kenya has since slowed down. Between 1998 and 2014 fertility only declined by 17% moving from 4.7 children per woman in 1998 to 3.9 in 2014 compared to a reduction of 42% in the earlier years from 8.1 in 1978 to 4.7 in 1998. The study examined fertility in Kenya at the individual woman level, using cross-section data from the Kenya Demographic and Health surveys for the years 1989, 1993,1998,2003,2008 and 2014. Applying a Poisson-logit hurdles model, the study determines that fertility in Kenya is on a declining trend and possibly at the onset of the demographic transition with the most important determinants showing inconsistent patterns in their influence across the years. The age of a woman, child mortality and woman’s level of education are significant determinants of fertility and their influence remained consistently the same over the years. Wealth status, use of modern contraceptives, employment, place of residence and the number of females in the household showed inconsistent patterns across the years. Child mortality, the age of the woman, lower wealth quintile in relation to higher wealth quintile had a positive effect on fertility while, education level, residency in urban areas, use of modern contraceptives in relation to non-use, higher wealth quintiles in relation to lower wealth quintiles had negative effects on fertility. Policy scenarios will thus depend on a suitable environment that leads to the elimination of factors that are enhancing fertility while also promoting those factors that limit fertility if the primary focus is to reduce fertility rates and vice versa.