Effect of macroeconomic factors on levels of nonperforming loans among listed Kenyan Commercial Banks

Abstract

Non- performing loans have been the leading cause of market failure at both the global and local level in any given economy. NPLs receive so much attention as they pose so much problems. First on the weight on the balance sheet by curbing their profits, undermining costs in a bank and creating a strain on resources available. High levels of NPL weaken a bank and keep it from doing its job, which is to finance the economy. This study therefore, examined the effect of interest rates, GDP, CPI and exchange rates on NPL levels among 11NSE listed commercial banks in Kenya. The research used descriptive research design and focused on the 11 banking institutions listed by the NSE in Kenya. The research utilized secondary data and considered quarterly data for a period of 6 years from 2008 to 2017. Data was analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics, which included correlation analysis and regression analysis. The SPSS statistical software was used to analyze the collected data. The findings established that inflation rate was negative which showed that a negative relationship existed between inflation rate and non-performing loans. The study also confirmed that an increase in interest rates and exchange rate lead to a decrease in the number of people taking loans leading to the rise in non-performing loan leaves among commercial banks in Kenya. The ANOV A statistics indicated interest rate was statistically significant while exchange rate, inflation rate, and GDP growth rate were not found to be statistically significant individually in predicting the relationship of the variables. The study therefore recommends that the Central Bank of Kenya and other regulators in the market should put in place policies that will ensure control of macroeconomic variables such as inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate through various monetary and fiscal policies so as to moderate the volatility being experienced in the economy.