dc.contributor.author | Olaka, L. A. | |
dc.contributor.author | Ogutu, J. O. | |
dc.contributor.author | Said, M. Y. | |
dc.contributor.author | Oludhe, C. | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2020-03-15T11:37:07Z | |
dc.date.available | 2020-03-15T11:37:07Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2019-07-13 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Olaka, L. A., Ogutu, J. O., Said, M. Y., & Oludhe, C. (2019). Projected Climatic and Hydrologic Changes to Lake Victoria Basin Rivers under Three RCP Emission Scenarios for 2015–2100 and Impacts on the Water Sector. Water, 11(7), 1449. | en_US |
dc.identifier.uri | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/11/7/1449 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://erepository.uonbi.ac.ke/handle/11295/109335 | |
dc.description.abstract | Abstract: Rivers in the Lake Victoria Basin support a multitude of ecosystem services, and the
economies of the riparian countries (Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi) rely on their
discharge, but projections of their future discharges under various climate change scenarios are
not available. Here, we apply Vector Autoregressive Moving Average models with eXogenous
variables (VARMAX) statistical models to project hydrological discharge for 23 river catchments for
the 2015–2100 period, under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs), namely RCPs 2.6,
4.5, and 8.5. We show an intensification of future annual rainfall by 25% in the eastern and 5–10% in
the western part of the basin. At higher emission scenarios, the October to December season receives
more rainfall than the March to May season. Temperature projections show a substantial increase in
the mean annual minimum temperature by 1.3–4.5 ◦C and warming in the colder season (June to
September) by 1.7–2.9 ◦C under RCP 4.5 and 4.9 ◦C under RCP 8.5 by 2085. Variability in future river
discharge ranges from 5–267%, increases with emission intensity, and is the highest in rivers in the
southern and south eastern parts of the basin. The flow trajectories reveal no systematic trends but
suggest marked inter-annual variation, primarily in the timing and magnitude of discharge peaks and
lows. The projections imply the need for coordinated transboundary river management in the future. | en_US |
dc.language.iso | en_US | en_US |
dc.publisher | MDPI | en_US |
dc.subject | hydrological flows; VARMAX model; water sector; Lake Victoria Basin; East Africa; RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 | en_US |
dc.title | Projected Climatic and Hydrologic Changes to Lake Victoria Basin Rivers under Three RCP Emission Scenarios for 2015–2100 and Impacts on the Water Sector | en_US |
dc.type | Article | en_US |