Assessing Pressure and Tempature Forecasts in the Take-off Data at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport

Abstract

This research sought to assess the accuracy of forecasts of pressure and temperature as two of the three Take-Off data parameters issued, against the data observed on hourly basis at JKIA. The hypothesis for this study is ‘Pressure and temperature forecasts in the Take-off data at JKIA meet the required International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) standards’ Data on the pressure and temperature forecasts was sourced from the Take-Off data while the data on observed pressures and temperature was sourced from the routine meteorological aerodrome weather reports (METARS) respectively. These datasets are generated at JKIA and archived at Kenya Meteorological Department Headquarters (KMD). Data was subjected to various data analysis and statistical techniques. Hourly average pressure and temperature values were calculated and plotted to determine the temporal evolution of these parameters. Scatter plot was used to show the distribution of error while Root Mean Square Error was used to calculate the accuracy of the forecasts. Contingency tables were used to determine the skill scores which included: Percent Correct, Post Agreement, Bias, Critical Success Index, Heidke Skill, Probability of Detection and Reliability. From the findings, the Hypothesis was tested and found to be true and the skill scores fell under the ICAO recommended practice and standards. Discussions and interpretations were done and conclusions and recommendations put forth