Intercensal Net Migration in Kenya, 1989-1999: Application of the Age-specific Growth Rate Method

Abstract

This study applied the age-specific growth rate technique to generate intercensal agespecific net migration rates in all the eight regions of Kenya. Age-specific growth rate (ASGR) technique was developed by Preston and Coale in 1982. A major strength of the technique is that it can be used to estimate migration, mortality, as well as fertility for non-stable populations, as is typical of the developing countries where fertility and mortality rates are rapidly changing. The 2009 Kenya census, recorded the population at 38.6 million. The population is steadily growing and projected to reach over 50 million by 2020 (Oucho, 2015). This study utilized the 1989 and 1999 Kenya Population and Housing census data sets. Age-specific growth rate technique was first applied by Wakajummah (1986) to the 1969 and 1979 Kenyan census data sets. Twenty five years later, the same technique was applied by Adieri (2012) to the 1999 and 2009 census data sets. The general objective of this study was to generate the intercensal net migration rates and patterns by age-group and sex for the intercensal period, 1989-1999 in the eight (8) regions of Kenya using the age-specific growth rate method. Specific objectives of the study were: to estimate the intercensal net migration rates by age-group and sex for the intercensal period 1989-1999; and to establish the intercensal net migration patterns by age-group and sex for the intercensal period, 1989-1999 in the eight (8) regions of Kenya using the age-specific growth rate method. Study findings revealed that Nairobi and Coast regions experienced similar agespecific migration patterns at age-groups 10-24 and 35-74 with a slight variation observed at age-groups 5-9 and 25-34 with Nairobi recording in-migration of persons belonging to these age-groups. In-migration of the youthful population evidenced at age-group 10-24 suggests that these are young individuals who go to the city in pursuit of either education or job-seeking. It is also possible that the two regions attract many migrants mainly because of the better welfare services that are available there in terms of learning institutions and employment opportunities. Similar patterns of outmigration from these areas were observed at age-group 35-69.This could be as a result of possible job transfers or retirement in the case of the older population aged 60 and above.