| dc.description.abstract | The major challenges facing Kenya today are poverty and unemployment. About 50% of the
rural population and 30% of the urban population live below the poverty line. With 80% of the
population being rural the poverty problem is overwhelming. The country has been unable to
generate adequate employment and wage employment has been declining over the recent past.
While in the 1970s the growth rate of employment was about 4% per annum, in the current
decade, the growth rate has been about 1.9% per annum, which is below the population growth
rate estimated at about 3%. The country has also witnessed declining growth in income per
capita. While in the 1960s per capita income grew at 2.6% p.a. this declined to 0.4% in 1980s.
Between 1990 and 95 the decline was even more dramatic at negative 0.3% (Kenya, 1997).
The poverty line is defined here as the value of consumption of food and non-food items below
which individuals cannot afford the recommended energy intake plus a minimum allowance for
non-food consumption. The poverty line has been estimated at about US$ 200 and 300 for
rural and urban areas respectively (GoK, 1998). This translates to less than one US$ per day.
Of Kenya’s total land area of 57.6 million hectares, 9.4 million or about 16% is classified as
high and medium potential land for agriculture. The remaining area estimated at 84% makes up
the arid and semi arid lands (ASALs). Out of the ASALs 48 million hectares, about 9 million
hectares can support crop production, 15 million hectares is adequate for livestock production
while the rest is dry and only useful for nomadic pastoralism. The ASAL supports about 20%
of the population, 50% of livestock and 3% of current agricultural output and 7% of
commercial output. ASALs have low natural fertility which are prone to compaction and
vulnerable to erosion.
The agriculture sector dominates the economy and contributes virtually to all the stated national
goals including achievement of national and household food security, industrialization by year
2020 as well as provision of employment opportunities. Currently, agriculture accounts for
about one-third of the gross domestic product, employs more than two-thirds of the labour
force, accounts for almost 70% of the export earnings (excluding refined petroleum), generates
the bulk of the country's food requirements and provides significant proportion of raw materials
for the agricultural based industrial sector. Overall, the smallholder sub-sector contributes about
75% of the total value of agricultural output, 55% of the marketed agricultural output and
provides just over 85% of the total employment in agriculture.
The sector’s ability to contribute effectively to the national goals hinges on identifying and
implementing measures which promote high and sustainable growth rate. Mellor (1990)
asserted that agricultural productivity growth is normally the major source of sustained
improvements in rural welfare. Three sources of agricultural growth can be identified in Kenya.
One is the expansion of cultivated area. The second is substitution or switching towards higher
valued commodities. The third is intensification. The first source of agricultural growth is
currently extremely limited. The cultivable land available to open up has diminished over the
years with rapidly rising population estimated at about 3% per annum to the extent that the land
holdings are becoming sub-optimal economic units and there is ever increasing temptation to
migrate to the marginal and fragile zone. Moreover, irrigation development which could help in
increasing cultivable land has been very slow due to the seemingly high cost associated with it.
Commodity substitution will contribute significantly to growth only if the input and output
markets function in a way to allow the producers and the private sectors respond appropriately
to the market signals. This is expected to occur if the on-going structural adjustment
programmes succeed in limiting government intervention to its core functions (of public good
nature) and allowing the private sector to take up the production, marketing and distribution
role. Most agricultural growth will therefore come from the third source: increased output per
unit land area. The realization of this growth potential will hinge on shifting rapidly from
resource based to science and knowledge-based agriculture. The objective of this paper is to
The sector’s ability to contribute effectively to the national goals hinges on identifying and
implementing measures which promote high and sustainable growth rate. Mellor (1990)
asserted that agricultural productivity growth is normally the major source of sustained
improvements in rural welfare. Three sources of agricultural growth can be identified in Kenya.
One is the expansion of cultivated area. The second is substitution or switching towards higher
valued commodities. The third is intensification. The first source of agricultural growth is
currently extremely limited. The cultivable land available to open up has diminished over the
years with rapidly rising population estimated at about 3% per annum to the extent that the land
holdings are becoming sub-optimal economic units and there is ever increasing temptation to
migrate to the marginal and fragile zone. Moreover, irrigation development which could help in
increasing cultivable land has been very slow due to the seemingly high cost associated with it.
Commodity substitution will contribute significantly to growth only if the input and output
markets function in a way to allow the producers and the private sectors respond appropriately
to the market signals. This is expected to occur if the on-going structural adjustment
programmes succeed in limiting government intervention to its core functions (of public good
nature) and allowing the private sector to take up the production, marketing and distribution
role. Most agricultural growth will therefore come from the third source: increased output per
unit land area. The realization of this growth potential will hinge on shifting rapidly from
resource based to science and knowledge-based agriculture. The objective of this paper is to | en |
