| dc.description.abstract | The debate on effects of climate change has been going on globally but the scientific consensus
is that global land and sea temperatures are warming under the influence of greenhouse gases,
and will continue to warm regardless of human intervention for at least the next two decades.
Temperatures have already increased by 0.6°C over the 20th century, and most of this warming
is attributable to human activities .The rise in temperatures and changing patterns of precipitation
will influence crops by shifting optimal crop growing zones and potentially affecting crop yields.
African countries are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their dependence on
rain-fed agriculture, which accounts for a large share of GDP in the region. Suitability evaluation
of crop growing regions based on the changing climate may reduce the risks and uncertainties to
farmers of crop failure and reduced yields.
In Kenya, the main staple food is maize which is greatly associated with food security. To invest
effectively in cultivation of maize in the country, it is important to take note of which maize
varieties are available in Kenya, their quality and quantity and where they are grown or can be
grown. It is on these bases of looking for relevant and justified information that farmers can be
provided with the relevant information through GIS techniques using crop biophysical
requirements versus landscape characterization information sourced from existing global and
national database. This study set out to assess the effects of climate change on the area growing
H614D maize variety in the Rift Valley. The study analyzed the relationship between the maize
growing area and the changes in temperature and rainfall .Suitability maps of H614D maize crop
were derived via Boolean algebraic modeling.
The findings of this study included time series suitability information for the H614D maize for
the years 2000, 2020, 2050, and 2080. It is evident from the resultant maps that the area under
cultivation of the maize variety is decreasing with time as the temperature increases and rainfall
decreases. Projections from 2000 to 2050 indicate that some areas that were originally suitable
for growing the maize variety will no longer be suitable in future. It will therefore be necessary
for researchers to come up with new maize varieties for these areas or introduce other crops that
will be best suited for the prevailing climatic conditions. However the future is not doomed
completely because the suitability in 2080 depicts a completely new scenario where the area
seems to be replicating itself, as rainfall increases. This implies that the maize crop could be
adopted again in the year 2080.The districts largely affected by the shifts are: Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Nakuru, Narok, Baringo, Keiyo and West Pokot | en |
