Population Growth, Structure And Momentum In Tanzania

Abstract

Despite debates on the linkages between population and development, studies have shown that issues related to population go beyond its size. The inter linkages between components of population such as age, structural composition, density, distribution and its characteristics must be considered in the context of sustainable development and human wellbeing. The sources of components of change are the cornerstone to understanding the complex relationship between economic transformation and demographic transition. The speed at which the demographic transition takes place is important because different speeds create different social, economic and environmental challenges and opportunities for countries. Tanzania’s population at the last census (2012) almost triples the size in 1967 (first post independence population census). At a rate of growth of 2.7 percent per annum, the national average population growth rate ranks as one of the fastest in the world and translates to a net total of about 1.2 million people being added to the population annually. At this rate Tanzania’s population is projected to reach 70.1 million in 2025.The high rate of population growth is driven by persistently high level of fertility, reduced mortality and low international net migration. The pst and current population growth rate has resulted have resulted in unprecedented large youthful population that enters labour market. The increase in youth population has opportunities as well as challenges. To gain from the ever-increasing youth population there is need for appropriate policies and programmes to harness their potential. On the other hand persons aged 60 and above though are of much lower proportion, are increasing in large numbers that demand attention to their welfare particularly health. The continued high fertility rate is a key source of population growth rate. Trend data indicate remarkable decline in fertility between 1991 and 2000 followed by a stall in fertility decline between 2000 and 2004 followed by a marginal decline by about 5.3 percent between 2005 and 2010. The major sources of marginal decline are; unchanging fertility rate among women in age groups 20- 24 and 25-29; slow pace in uptake of contraception among lower socioeconomic strata; persistent high fertility rate in the western parts of the country coupled with desire for large family in the same regions and unchanging unmet need for contraception. Education, urbanization and income levels play a significant role in reducing fertility. Large differences in fertility levels between regions and place of residence are due to differences in education, income and urbanization on one hand and the level of infant mortality. The Northern regions have had the highest proportion of women with secondary education, rapid urbanization coupled with low childhood mortality have had the highest rates of fertility decline within the last decade. Mortality during childhood (ages 0-5) is a key indicator of a country’s socio-economic well-being and is useful indicators for assessing progress in overall national development. A recent review of status of MDG indicates that Tanzania is among the countries in sub Saharan Africa that have made insufficient progress towards the achievement of mortality related indicators (MDG 4). However, vi | THDR 2014: Background Paper No. 7, ESRF Discussion Paper 61 the country has made progress in bridging the gap in childhood mortality between the poor and the wealthiest groups and between urban and rural areas. However, mortality remains by level of education and region of residence. Although there has been significant progress made towards improving child mortality in the country; there are important secular trends that have occurred across different groups. Infant mortality continues to be lower in the northern regions of Arusha and Kilimanjaro but high in the Southern and Western parts of the country. It is important to note that regions with the lowest childhood mortality rates have also the lowest fertility levels indicating that it is important to bring down the levels of childhood mortality before initiating rapid fertility decline. International migration contributes little to population change in Tanzania. An initially high rate of inflow was contributed by refugees into Tanzania from the southern part of Africa. The peak in migration to Tanzania occurred again 1990-1995 due to refugees in western part of Tanzania from troubled neighbours of Burundi and Rwanda. It is estimated that there will be net outflow from Tanzania to other countries. However, data and information on the nature of international migration particularly the effect of economic and social remittances are still scanty. Tanzania as in many other countries in sub Saharan Africa does not have sufficient data on international and internal migration. Evidence available indicates greater rural to urban migration with rural to rural more confined to within region and neighborhood migration. Census data do not allow for estimation of circular migration which is thought to be rampant in this region in Africa. The country now experiences rapid urbanization process particularly in Zanzibar where nearly half of the population is now living in urban areas. The rapid growth rate occurred in the 1967-1978 period. This growth rate subsided to about 5 percent in the recent decade with Zanzibar having slightly lower growth rate. There are five sources of urban population growth namely: rural-to-urban migration; increase in the number of urban centres over space and time; natural urban increase; expansion of urban boundaries or reclassification of urban centres; and daily commuters. Daily commuters, is hardly captured in population censuses but they increase the daytime population of urban areas. The structure and dynamics of population in Tanzania have several implications on development. As population grows, so does the demand for resources. Rapid population growth of this magnitude results in increased social expenditures such as education and health thereby diminishing investment in other critical development sectors such as agriculture, science technology and infrastructure. Between 650,000 and 750,000 persons are being added to the labour force annually and about 2.3 million persons have remained jobless particularly women. If the current population increases doesn’t change by 2025 the renewable water resources per capita shall be 1405.3 cubic metres which is below the threshold of 1667cubic meters while available cropland per capita in hectares shall be about 0.16 hectares which is below the threshold level of 0.21 hectares. In terms of primary education, an average of 11,589 teachers per annum will be required between 2015 and 2020. Similarly, an average of 8,924 teachers per annum will be needed between 2020 and 2025. To achieve this requirement for teachers implies expanding the teacher training institutions to meet the number required annually. Trends in components of population change in the country have a number of implications for growth and development. This demographic change brings economic opportunity that occurs THDR 2014: Background Paper No. 7, ESRF Discussion Paper 61 | vii only once in a limited amount of time. Studies show that the demographic bonus brought about surging youth population will not automatically occur without the active commitment of a government to design and implement appropriate policies and programmes. The utilization of demographic bonus is associated with: (i) existence of a large and high quality base of human resources, (ii) a stable population with strong growth of employment, and (iii) high saving and investment rates. These factors largely contributed rapid economic growth of South Korea and the other “Asian Tigers”. The key factors that are considered crucial in gaining demographic bonus include; making investments in health, education, and family planning. Thus the need to: address high fertility by providing family planning services; expand opportunities for higher education particularly for women and in rural areas; critically review the quality of education, including vocational skills essential for technological change as well as ensuring that educational provision is aligned with and tailored to the needs of both the local and global economy. As a core component of demographic transition, urbanization is inevitable and managing its trends and patterns constitute a major challenge as well as opportunity. Urban population is growing very fast while the economic growth and development transformations necessary to support it and enhance quality of life are not occurring at the same rate. Despite this fact, studies show that if cities are well managed then they can offer important opportunities for economic and social development. Since cities have always been centres for economic development and innovation. The high population density in urban areas can enable governments to easily deliver essential infrastructure and services at relatively low cost per capita. Urbanization is part of demographic transition and the transformation of a society from high to low birth and death rates. Therefore planning and managing urban growth as part of national development planning, can enable the country to address the challenges and harness opportunities linked to efficiency in provision of needs and lowering of resource scarcity threats associated with high population growth rate.