Effect of Selected Macro-economic Variables on the Financial Performance of Deposit-taking Savings and Cooperative Societies Sector in Kenya

Abstract

Financial performance is a domain of management which has remained and will continue to be the focus of management executives and scholars for a long time to come because of its centrality in the life of an organization. Because of the importance attached to financial performance, great attempts have been made to understand it over time in terms of factors that contributes to its realization or none realization. The relationship existing between macroeconomic factors and firms performance is a subject that has interested many scholars and practitioners. Often times, it is proved that a firm’s performance is dictated by some basic macroeconomic variables like rate of interest, economic growth, money supply, exchange rate and inflation. The objective of this study was to determine how selected macro-economic variables influence financial performance of DT-SACCOs in Kenya. The predictor variables were economic growth, interest rates, exchange rates, inflation rates and money supply. Financial performance was the response variable that the study intended to explore and it was given by ROA of the DT-SACCOs on a quarterly basis. The study was guided by three theories namely; modern portfolio theory, the international fisher effect theory and arbitrage pricing theory. A ten year period (2010-2019) was chosen for the study and the quarterly data from the period collected from a secondary source. A descriptive design was chosen and analysis was made using the multiple linear regression model to determine how the selected variables relate. SPSS version 23 was utilized for analysis. From the results from the software used, the R-square value was 0.529 which can be translated to mean that 52.9% of the variations in financial performance of DT-SACCOs are attributable to the five selected independent variables and the 47.1 percent remainder are attributable to other factors beyond the scope of this research. The study also revealed a strong relationship between predictor variables and financial performance (R=0.728). ANOVA results at 5% significance level show an F statistic of 7.648 hence the model was found fit to explain financial performance of DT-SACCOs. Additionally, the results showed that individually, economic growth, interest rate and inflation rate are statistically significant factors affecting financial performance while exchange rate and money supply do not substantially determine financial performance of DT-SACCOs. The recommendation made by the study was that more focus should be placed by policy makers to the current levels of interest rates, economic growth and inflation rates since they significantly influence financial performance of DT-SACCOs.