Modelling the cure rates of Female Sex Workers with STIs using a Mover-Stayer Markov chain Model

Abstract

Generally human beings undergo di erent types of diseases. One such are sexually transmitted infections(STIs)which are either chronic or curable. In this study, a Markov model, speci cally a Mover-Stayer Markov Chain model is used to determine the cure rates of female sex workers who have chronic and curable STIS. The maximum likelihood estimation method is used to obtain the proportion of stayers and movers in the Mover-Stayer Markov Chain model. Octave computational software is used to analysis and data was obtained from the Kenyan Ministry of Health. The study found that 100% of female sex workers who contract chronic STIs do not get healed while 78.78% of female sex workers who contract STIs eventually get healed. It is recommended that further research be conducted on interventions that can prevent female sex workers from contracting chronic STIs as well as interventions that drastically reduce incidences of contracting curable STIs. Furthermore, health facility workers can be sensitized on humanely and con dentially handling the female sex workers so that more female sex workers can visit health facilities more frequently.