Mathematical Modelling of Hiv-aids Transmission Dynamics Coupled With Awareness Among Adolescents and Young Adults in Kenya

Abstract

Although HIV/AIDS containment campaigns have recorded substantial success within the past decade, the disease still poses a big health concern to many developing countries, including Kenya. We develop deterministic models to study the e↵ect of HIV/AIDS awareness in the disease transmission dynamics of adolescents aged 10 - 14 years and young adults aged 15-24 years in Kenya. Early sexual debut and risky sexual behavior among the adolescents and young adults play a significant role in determining individual to population level vulnerability to HIV infection. Many mathematical epidemiology models neglect the fact that adolescents and young adults display interesting dynamics and they need to be researched on separately given that majority of all new HIV/AIDS infections in Kenya occur in adolescents and young adults and it is higher in young women than young men. Di↵erent regions display distinct di↵erences in HIV/AIDS prevalence largely due to income levels, societal norms, HIV/AIDS status knowledge, health services, exposure risk among others. We study the impact of HIV/AIDS comprehensive knowledge, HIV/AIDS testing levels, condom use, antiretroviral therapy coverage and societal attitudes a↵ecting HIV/AIDS testing, condom use and antiretroviral therapy in the Kenyan youth disease dynamics. We also consider spatial e↵ects of targeted HIV/AIDS combinatory control among the Kenyan youth in high risk Counties. Our findings suggest that increasing comprehensive knowledge of HIV/AIDS among young women has a more direct relationship in decreasing new infection rates among young men, and vice versa. While highly efficacious combinatory control approach significantly reduces HIV/AIDS prevalence rates among adolescent girls and young women, and adolescent boys and young men, the disease remains endemic provided infected unaware sexual interactions persist. Disproportional gender-wise attitudes towards HIV/AIDS controls play a key role in reducing the Kenyan youth HIV/AIDS prevalence trends. Varying departure rates and return rates have little e↵ect in the overall increase of new HIV/AIDS infections among the youth in high risk Counties in Kenya.