Assessing Sustainability of Urban Growth in Ongata Rongai Town, Kajiado County, Kenya

Abstract

The rapid development of urban areas is not only a contributor to the economic growth of developing countries but also a significant driver of environmental change and resource use. Sustainable development of urban areas is one of the global concerns and is prominently captured in the sustainable development goals. Achieving sustainable development of urban areas requires an understanding of the complexity of current users’ activities and interactions in the urban space, and the potential future pathways of urban growth and its impact on the environment, people and policies as well. This study assesses the following dimensions of sustainability: environmental, social (governance) and spatial (urban form). It further assesses historical patterns of change in urban land development using land use/land cover maps combined with other geospatial datasets such as topographical data and population data to document the historical patterns of change in Ongata Rongai between 2000 and 2020. Moreover, it models the potential future scenarios of the current urban development strategies using a Cellular Automata-based tool to predict future potential land cover characteristics around Rongai town for the period up to 2030. Through assessment of the following indicators; Proper land use implementation, efficiency and sound transport, access to adequate basic services and infrastructure, safety and security, public participation, level of community interaction and level of sprawl indicators it shows that Ongata Rongai has not yet attained sustainable development. This is because, the research indicated the high presence of sprawl, an inefficient and unsound transport system, inadequate participation of the residents, conflicting land uses, inadequate safety, insecurity, inadequate access to basic services and infrastructure and low level of interaction among the residents of Ongata Rongai. The rapid growth has resulted in management not keeping pace with the growth. The reasons for the inability to attain sustainable development include lack of approved plans to guide developments, presence of a poor urban land tenure system and unregulated land markets, uncoordinated institutions and lack of monitoring of urban development, lack of political will and interference by the justice system. The study recommends that the smart concept be promoted in addition to the establishment of an urban board and sensitization of public participation. To keep pace with the rapid development and promote compact development, a land readjustment strategy is recommended.