Socio-economic and Technical Assessment of Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change Adaptation Among the Transitioning Pastoralist and Agro-pastoralist Households of Laikipia County, Kenya

Abstract

Climate change in Africa, the worst hit continent is real with observable changes due to its high levels of vulnerability. Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) home to nearly 300 million poor people is portrayed as a susceptible territory to the impact of climate change considering her low adaptive capacity to anticipated extreme events. The situation in the Kenyan arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) is expounded by community over reliance on climate sensitive natural assets and ecosystems resources for their livelihood and food security. The dryland community, although have greatly benefited from the goods and services provided by the ecosystem, their future reliance on the same is very uncertain. The effect may be experienced in the future; however, some negative consequences are already felt now. Debates in adaptation science has attracted and developed interest especially in developing countries who call in support of building the adaptive capacity of these vulnerable communities to the consequences of climate change. This PhD work builds on what is known and discussed about adaptation as a feature of human-environmental systems or as referred in literature as Social-Ecological Systems (SESs). Understanding adaptive capacity of such a system within the adaptation framework requires an empirical analysis of the complex social process framed by intangible processes of: innovations fostering; social institutional and entitlements; Asset’s base; knowledge and information and decision making and governance. This thesis research undertakes an empirical assessment of adaptive capacity as a social technical process among the pastoralists and agro-pastoralists of Il Ngwesi group ranch, Northern Rift of Laikipia County, Kenya. Specifically analyzing household adaptation practices that facilitates the transition of the dryland community from pastoralism to agro-pastoralism. Secondly, characterizing assets and resources available in the commons that determine adaptive capacity of the pastoral and agro-pastoral community, and finally evaluating how access to these resources differentiate adaptive capacity among the community.

The study focused on members of Il Ngwesi Group Ranch, Laikipia County, Kenya living in the conservancy and those in the neighborhoods. Two regions were therefore considered, inside and outside the conservancy. Mixed methods of data collected was used, engaging both qualitative and quantitative approaches. Quantitative data was first analyzed using descriptive statistics and later econometric models such as Heckman Probit and Multivariate Probit Model. Qualitative data was manually coded for general trends and further interpretation. The results show that irrigation is a growing adaptation practice that acts as a bridge in the transformation process of the pastoral community, transiting from pastoralism to agro-pastoralism. The social economic drivers that encourage its uptake are identified as: good quality land for food crops (1.152**), government assistance (0.906**), and large herds of livestock (small (-0.473*) and medium (-0.931**) livestock herds) as financial base and governance of community land tenure regime (1.556**). Additionally agronomic information (1.094***) through extension services and targeting the young generation often left out of development interventions (older household heads (-0.0219*)). Further results show three fundamental components that require more attention in adaptive capacity interventions, research and policy. These are: household asset, relevant information that shapes adaptation process and multi-level governance of land tenure regimes in pasture management in the drylands. Finally, social differentiation is viewed as an outcome of differentiated adaptation pathways that dictates institutional re-arrangement to create new knowledge and to accommodate the process of change. This calls to paying attention to this unfolding scenario, unpacking the broader term “adaptation” to “socially differentiated adaptation” to avoid effects of accelerating the growing inequality in the drylands where households are not coherent and homogenous units for either research, policy or development.