An Ex-ante Assessment of the Socio-ecological Implications of Communal Land Certification in Pastoral Areas of the Borana Zone in Southern Ethiopia

Abstract

Land is the main platform for livelihood sourcing for many communities in Sub Saharan Africa. It is however becoming scarce owing to many factors that include the growing human population, land degradation and climate change. Pastoralism is an important livelihood source for many, but land scarcity and tenure insecurity are threatening its viability as a livelihood source. Pastoral communities resource use and governance display unique characteristics that complicate tenure formalization. Policy makers are thus faced with a huge task of drafting policies that take this uniqueness into consideration. This study was conducted in Dirre grazing unit of the Borana zone in southern Ethiopia. The objectives were to assess the implications of securing land tenure by formalizing land rights at different scales and how this interacts with socio economic drivers that shape land use in pastoral systems. It also assessed the implications of communal land rights formalization on such issues and rangeland ecology, livestock and livelihoods. The methodology applied a scenario development approach with key informant interviews and focus group discussions. It also employed a household survey with 187 households and coupled human-ecosystem simulation modelling approach was used with SAVANNA an ecosystem model and DECUMA an agent-based model. The data was analysed using multiple analysis techniques that includes the Analytical Hierarchal Analysis (AHP) of the multi criteria decision analysis tool and a two-tailed t-test was used to compare means at 95% confidence level. The findings show that smaller scale certification would have more advantages, but pastoralists preferred larger scale which despite its challenges, is the best for maintaining flexible mobility and for allowing implementation of seasonal grazing management. Pastoralists response showed that land certification will secure land rights, enable better management of rangelands, and improve livestock-based livelihoods. However, the findings also suggest that certification will not necessarily reverse individualization and the ongoing shift in livelihoods toward agropastoralism. From the simulation modelling, vegetation layers respond differently to the grazing management scenarios. The unpalatable grass levels rise regardless of grazing management, which is potentially a sign of increased degradation. When it is a very low rainfall year, grazing management does not have as many benefits, as everything becomes dry and stressed. Both grazing scenarios had marginal effects on woody biomass and population for palatable species for about half the simulation time for palatable woody species. The study suggests the need for multi-pronged approaches and various support mechanisms when implementing a formal land tenure system in these areas as the scale of operation matters. Secondly, it is concluded that, while strengthening communal tenure for pastoralists is key, the drivers toward individualization and adoption of crop agriculture are such that implementing a formal communal land tenure system will not always in itself be sufficient to stem individualization. The reasons for livelihood transition go beyond land tenure security. Thirdly, as the land certification program in pastoral areas moves forward, it should aim at enhancing pastoralist livelihoods and their capacity to manage rangelands, halt degradation and allow the rangelands to recover to be able to sustain livestock production for longer. There is need to couple planned grazing with intensive rangeland reclamation, and management efforts, intensify livestock production through, cattle fattening, or diversify into other livelihood activities.