A Critical Analysis of the Role of Early Warning Systems in Preventing Conflict in Africa: Case Study of the Ilemi Triangle

Abstract

Discussions on peace and war have dominated African discourse amid protracted violent conflicts and the impact such have had on the continent’s stability and ability to attain its developmental objectives. Persisting civil wars and novice conflicts linked to resource, political and ideological differences continue to plague the continent. Notably, as global and continental discourse on the preference for conflicts prevention against attempts to manage those that have already flared takes cognizance, Early Warning and Early Response (EWER) mechanisms at continental, regional and state level have also become instrumental to Africa’s conflict management efforts. Such has been necessitated by the shortcomings of the reactionary rather than proactive approaches of conflict management. In Africa, such EWER mechanisms have developed under the AU, and regional groupings like ECOWAS, and IGAD. However, the presence of these conflict early warning and prevention measures has yielded mixed results across the continent, aiding the prevention of conflict, though with various forms of conflicts in the continent still persisting. Similar to the global level, these outcomes have yielded debate on regarding the effectiveness of these mechanisms. Towards addressing a deeper understanding and contextualization of the of Africa’s Early Warning systems, this study examines the role of the continent’s EWER mechanisms in forestalling conflict in Africa. On this subject, the study looks into the role various actors in the operationalization of the EWER mechanisms, as well as the factors influencing their effectiveness of these mechanisms in Africa. The study bases its theoretical standing on Michael Lund’s Conflict Prevention theory as its analytic framework; drawing on its key assumptions that early response to signs of conflict, coordinated approaches to address rising tensions and efforts to transform the root causes of conflict can mitigate the escalation of conflict into overt violence. Towards this the study examined the empirical case of conflict prevention measures in the Ilemi Triangle which has continued to be characterized by inter and intra- state conflicts amidst existing regional and continental EWER mechanisms geared at managing the conflicts. The study conducted interviews with selected actors involved in the region’s EWER system towards its objectives and analyzed the collected data using a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. Study findings identify competition for scarce resources, longstanding hatred amongst different ethnic communities and marginalization by authorities as the main drivers of persisting conflict Africa. Additionally, revenge and disputed borders are also catalyzers of conflict. The findings point to the significance of EWER mechanisms in facilitating peaceful co-existence and driving collective responsibility for security through trust-building and enhancement of possibilities for mediation and negotiation in resolving conflicts. The study establishes an array of actors EWER, playing both enabling and off- setting roles to their implementation and that an array of structural, institutional and political factors which were promoting and antagonistic to the effectiveness of early warning mechanisms. Accordingly, the study recommends enhanced incorporation of grassroots actors in the implementation of conflict early warning mechanisms alongside state support for separate conflict resolution mechanisms such as DDR and border demarcations to complement the ability of early warning mechanisms in averting conflict in Africa.