Evaluation of Efficiency of Wasp and Lips Xp/op Electricity Planning Models in Kenya

Abstract

Power system planning is a major issue in many electricity producing industries, both in high- and low-income countries due to its complexity and dimensionality. Most countries have applied different models to predict future outcome values with some countries like Kenya using more than one model. However, due to the different assumptions that these models are based on, there is a likelihood of giving different (and sometimes contradicting) outcomes over the same period. As such, thus study was trying to assess the accuracy/reliability of different Electricity Development Plans in Kenya. The study compared two generation plans, the WASP model ) and the LIPS XP/OP model Which one is optimal? The study used data from WDI KPLC and KenGen and mean difference as the main analytical tool. The study finding reveal that two models were not accurate in predicting the country’s electricity generation between 2015 and 2021 as they all overstated the production from the actual observed values. LIPS XP/OP model had a lower overstated mean than the WASP Model. Additionally, the study revealed that at individual technology level, the WASP model overestimated the geothermal technology generation capacity while LIPS XP/OP model overestimated hydropower and Diesel engine technology generation capacity. The two models significantly differ in prediction of diesel engine technology, import technology, cogeneration technology, wind technology and PV technology with WASP model having overestimated diesel engine technology consumption while LIPS XP/OP estimated import technology consumption; cogeneration technology consumption, wind technology consumption and PV technology consumption. Finally, LIPS XP/OP model performed dismally in all costs while WASP predicted inaccurately least cost in most scenarios. We thus recommend that each of the models be used where it is more accurate and reliable in predicting the true focused values of electricity in Kenya.