Crude Oil's Effect on South Sudan's Economy (1990-2020)

Abstract

This research was preoccupied with crude oil’s effect on South Sudan’s economy, both in the long- and the immediate term. That is, it analyzed crude oil’s effect on growth. The ARDL model, an advanced data analysis tool that uses the diagnostic tests of Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Johansen test of integration, VAR, and VECM, has been used in this study. According to the study's findings, the non-oil sector contributed 12.35% of the GDP growth rate, while crude oil generated 63.55% of it. The GDP growth rate had been adversely affected by the annual inflationary rate and official exchange rates by 11.95% and 1.64%, respectively. International trade made for 1.89% of the GDP growth rate. While other factors like as corruption, conflict, and illiteracy have also prevented the GDP from growing by 3.17%. The study's conclusions are consistent with the literature, which claims that over 98.1% of South Sudan's national revenues and 99.8% of its total exports come from crude oil. By keeping a closer eye on citizens' wellbeing over time using historical data, the policy implications for crude oil offer knowledge for decision-makers, scholars, researchers, partners, and investors in solv-ing business problems that influence the economy’s health.