An Assessment of the Effects of Climate Variability and Change on Sustainable Livelihoods in Turkana County, Kenya

Abstract

Kenya’s population significantly depends on climate-based livelihoods which have been negatively affected by adverse climate change effects, leaving most households vulnerable. This study assessed the effects of climate change and variability on sustainable livelihoods in Turkana County. This was done through examining rainfall temporal patterns, evaluating climate shocks on main livelihoods, coping mechanisms applied as well as for opportunities for sustainable livelihoods. Cross sectional research design with a mixed method approach was adopted for the study; where the data collected were both qualitative and quantitative. The study also utilized secondary data of rainfall which was analyzed through temporal trend analysis based on four seasons of December January February (DJF), March April May (MAM), June July August (JJA) and September October November (SON). Primary data from 382 questionnaires were analyzed to get views from households while qualitative data from nine key informant interviews and 12 focused group discussions helped to triangulate data from households. From trend analysis, historical rainfall data showed that MAM and SON seasons had an increasing trend while future rainfall data indicated a decreasing trend for MAM and an increasing trend for SON. Mild drought episodes were observed to occur after every three years with rainfall being erratic and no longer predictable. The study was able to establish that pastoralism, agro-pastoralism, casual labor, business and employment were the main sources of livelihoods. Food aid was the main coping mechanism while traditional coping mechanisms, like migration of livestock, were declining. Other coping mechanisms included borrowing of food, reducing nonfood expenses, and charcoal burning. The study recommended the need to enhance the existing climate information services, capacity building, livelihood diversification, and incorporation of climate-smart agriculture and pasture management well as encourage rural industrialization thus achieving livelihood sustainability.