Analysis of the Effect of Climate Variability and Socio-economic Factors on Adaptation Strategies Among Small Scale Farmers. A Case Study of Nyandarua County, Kenya

Abstract

Climate variability and its impact on people’s livelihood is a contemporary issue being discussed globally. The livelihoods of communities residing in Kenya's rural areas depend heavily on crop growing. For the optimum crop output, the sector is largely dependent on climatic factors like temperature and rainfall. Small holder farmers have applied several adaptation strategies to deal with varying rainfall and temperature patterns to maintain and improve key crop output. This study assessed the adaptation strategies adopted by the small-scale farmers to mitigate the effects of climate variability on their crop farming and output. The study adopted the Ricardian Model of using the primary and secondary data to assess and evaluate the effects of weather variability on agricultural output and adaptation. To achieve this objective, the study examined a 21 year mean annual rainfall and the temperature patterns from 1999 to 2019 and their influence on selected crop output (Maize and Irish potatoes). The study assessed and evaluated the effectiveness of adaptation strategies employed as well as the socio-economic factors influencing adaptation strategies in improving selected crop output. Frequencies of means, Pearson correlation, linear, multiple and the multinomial regression techniques were applied to analyse the data. The study found that rainfall variability significantly influenced about 50% of changes in maize crop output, but could not explain 91% of variation in Irish potato output. Maize output varied significantly between 1999 and 2019, with an average of 29,145.76 tonnes. Irish potato output showed increased trends, but output in tonnes also varied over the years. The study found minimal relationships between temperature changes and maize and potato output. The study rejected the null hypothesis that rainfall and temperature variability did not significantly impact crop farming in Nyandarua County. The study found that crop diversification was the most preferred form of adaptation, followed by planting new crops and adjusting planting dates. Income level positively influenced farmers' choice of crop diversification (β=0.067), while household head's education positively influenced shifting planting dates (β=.329). Land size and farming system negatively influenced farmers' key adaptation strategies (β=-0.091, p=-0.018). The hypothesis that socio economic factors do not influence the adaptation strategies adopted by small scale farmers was rejected. The empirical crop output model confirmed the respondents' and key informants' views that the adaptation strategies applied within 21 years were effective in maintaining and improving the crop yields. Multinomial logistic regression established that adoption of crop diversification and application of new crop variety were effective in increasing crop output (Exp (β) =1.981, Exp (β) =1.292, respectively). The study concluded that the primary strategy for maintaining a high crop output lies in bridging the gap of adaptation knowledge between the farmers’ and the policy makers. The study recommends a continuous formulation and monitoring of the effectiveness of sustainable adaptations based on regional climate variability patterns, socio-economic considerations, existing government policies and spatial ecological environments. Research suggests that further study in Nyandarua County is needed to understand the interrelationship between climatic and agricultural factors, the costs of adaptation measures for smallholder farmers, and the impact of other agronomic factors.