Institute for Development Studies, University of Nairobi

The purpose of this paper is to sketch out with a broad sweep the likely economic developments and problems in Africa over the next two to three decades. By way of introduction to this theme, the paper surveys the special features of the African situation which distinguish it from other parts of the Third Worlds the relative economic backwardness, the recent origin and devastating impact of colonialism, rapid decolonisation and continued existence of oolonial and racist regimes in Southern Africa. As a prelude to the contemporary and future economic problems, the colonial roots of the pattern and growth of African economies are analyzed, together with an assessment of economic growth and change in the first decade of independence, including an appraisal of slow growth during this period. A sketch of economic goals for the African continent over the next three decades is presented, setting out macro-economic and sectoral growth rates, as well as socio-economic objectives. The second half of the paper identifies the favourable factors as well as the potential obstacles to accelerated and equitable development in the future, isolating for more detailed treatment questions of economic cooperation among African countries, unemployment and income distribution, and the strategy for international development. The paper concludes by a speculative section on the impact on the societies ard economies of independent African countries of the unfolding of events in Southern Africa.