Analysing the temporal characteristics of extreme temperature events over asals and the coastal regions of Kenya as an indicator of climate change
Abstract
The issue of climate change is of global concern. Extreme climatic events have become
particularly of interest to most governments around the world. This concern has been
increasingly reflected in media reports over the last 5 years.
This study examines the temporal pattern of surface temperatures and of the frequency of
extreme temperature events over the ASALs and the coastal region in Kenya. The ASALs
and the coastal regions were chosen because they are the most vulnerable areas to climate
change. It also seeks to establish whether there is any significant relationship between the
mean temperatures and the extreme temperature events. Data from nine stations were used.
The data comprised daily minimum and maximum temperatures for the period of ranging
from 1967-2005.The data were tested for homogeneity using the short-cut Bartlett Test and
the Cumulative Mass Curve. The data from all the stations were found to be homogeneous.
The sequential version of the Mann-kendall test was used to investigate any abrupt changes in
the frequency of the extreme temperature events. Regression analysis was used to delineate
the magnitude of trends in the minimum and maximum temperature time series for each
station. Simple correlation coefficients were used to investigate the degree of relationship
between the mean temperatures and the extreme temperature events.
Results showed that there has been significant warming over the study area and this has been
exhibited in the decrease of the frequency of cold days over most of the station, decrease of
cool days over a few station, increase of hot days over some stations and increase of warm
nights over some stations.
The established significant warming trends pose a serious challenge to the economy
particularly the agricultural and the energy sector of the country since the ,major economy
drivers of the country are weather dependant. In particular, the effects of decreased frequency
of cold days and increased frequency of hot days would have serious implications on the
agricultural output and increase in vector borne diseases. Therefore the findings need to be
incorporated in the future planning of the country.
Citation
Master of Science in Meteorology,Sponsorhip
University of NairobiPublisher
Department of meteorology school of physical sciences University of Nairobi.