Forecasting voluntary cash donations in private homes for the needy children:The case of Thomas Barnardo children's home, Nairobi
Abstract
Private homes for the needy children receive 90% of their income
by way of voluntary cash donations from. individuals and
organizations. This huge part of their income, by its very nature
is highly unpredictable and makes the homes' planning activities
extremely difficult.
The objective of this study was to develop a simple time-series
forecasting model for the Thomas Barnardo children's home which
could be used to forecast its monthly voluntary donations. It is
hoped that such a model could easily be adopted by other
children's homes and also the Children's Department of the
Ministry of Horne affairs for advisory purposes.
The study found that monthly voluntary donations exhibited some
predictable pattern from month to month, with some months
consistently having high donations while others have low
donations. The trend of voluntary donations over the years was
found to exhibit a general linear upward direction. using the
findings of the study, a forecasting model was developed.
The model that was developed utilized monthly seasonal indices
and the linear trend equation to forecast monthly voluntary
donations. The model was tested for its suitability in
forecasting and was found to be suitable.
Sponsorhip
University of NairobiPublisher
School of Business, University of Nairobi