| dc.description.abstract | This research on nuptial determinants of fertility investigates
the re l at ions hip between selected nuptial variables
and total fertility rates in western Kenya. Its basic objectives
are as follows: to investigate the level and direction of correlation
between selected nuptial variables and total fertility
rate; to demonstrate that socio-economic factors influence fertiity net only directly but also indirectly through their impact
on nuptial variables; and to identify appropriate policy measures
which could be employed to control fertility in the study region.
The null hypotheses tested were: (i) nuptial variables are
less important than socio-economic variables as predictor
variables of current total fertility rate, (ii) nuptial variables
are less important than socio-economic variables as
predictor variables of lifetime total fertility rate.
The research utilizing both the1969 and1979 census
data reinforces its analysis with the sample survey data of 1978.
The sample survey data was collected by a two-stage stratified
random sampling method. Approximately 411 household units were
surveyed in Western Province, and another 854 household units
were surveyed in Nyanza Province , These household units yielded
probability population sample sizes of p = 0.8% and p = 0.4% of
the total populations in the two provinces respectively.
The research findings based on a step-wise partial
correlation analysis led to the rejection of the first null hypothesis.
However. on the strength of 8 - coefficients, the nuptial variables
which emerged as relatively good positive predictor variables of
current total fertility rate (Yl) were: the proportion of total
adult females aged 15-49 years, (Kl); and the proportion of currently
married women aged 15-49 years, (K3). On the other hand, the nuptial
variables which emerged as relatively good negative predictor variables
of current total fertility rate (Yl) were also: the proportion
of women widowed aged lS-49 years, (K4); and the proportion of
divorced and separated women aged lS-49 years. (KS). The effect of
all these nuptial variables on current total fertility rate (Yl),
were found to be statistically significant from zero at 0.05 level
of significance.
The research findings for the lifetime total fertility
rate (Y2), again led to the acceptance of the second null hypothesis,
because both socio-economic and situational variables examined
dominated the rank of significant predictor variables. The only
few nuptial variables which emerged as good predictor variables of
Y2 were: age at first marriage, (K7]; the proportion of currently
married women aged lS-49 years, (K3); the proportion of widowed
women aged 15-49 years, (K4); and the proportion of divorced and
separated women aged 15-49 years, (K5). All these coefficients
were found to be statistically significant from zero at 0.05 level
of significance.
When socia-economic and situational variables were incorporated
in the analysis, those found to be good predictor variables
of current total fertility rate, (Yl). were: Hie proportion of
Temal es of lower primary education who we re aged 15 .-49 years,
(X3); tile,proportion of women of upper primary education who were
aged 15 - 49 year~, (X4); and, the proportion of females aged
15 - 49 years, (X8), who were using contraceptives. All these
coefficients were also statistically significant from zero at 0.05
level of significance.
Further reference to lifetime total fertility rate (Y2),
indicates the following socio-economic and situational variables
as important negative predictor variables: the proportion of
illiterate women aged 15 - 49 years, (X2}; the,proportion of females
of upper primary education who were aged 15 - 49 years; the proportion
urbanized (X?); and, infant and childhood mortality rate, (X9). It was
noted-that the proportion of females u,sing contraceptives, (X8) also,
exerted negative effect on Y2. It shauld , however, be emphasized
that most of these negative effects on lifetime total fertility
rate, (Y2), were not statistically significant from zero at 0.05
level of significance.
The main conclusion is. therefore, that in the context
of the'present and future levels of socia-economic development of
Western Kenya, socia-economic and situational phenomena will continue
to be relatively better predictor variables of total fertility
rate than nuptial variables. Therefore, it is recommended
that further research should investigate the impact of accelerated
rural agricultural change on family formation and dissolution with
the aim of finding out an acceptable new legal age at
first marriage which should be enforced for the entire
nation. Furthermore the following anti-natalist
policies are suggested: age at first marriage policy;
population education policy; employment and income
policy for female population to make women selfreliant;
health care policy that focuses on reduction
of infant mortality rates; land adjudication policy
to reduce land fragmentation; and a new approach to
the current family planning policy. | en |
