Application of the Markov chain model in estimation of stocks and flows of teachers in schools
Abstract
Statisticians and Policy analysts have used a wide variety of Statistical
techniques in manpower planning. These range from relatively simple
techniques such as statistical ratios to highly complex methods such as the
nonparametric techniques and in particular Markov process.
Human resource personnel when estimating the numbers of people required
in an organization have used one or more of the following ways or
techniques: by exercising managerial judgment, by using work-study
techniques, and by using statistical techniques. Bowey (1974) noted that
manpower planning is not a clearly defined practice. To some it is a statistical
technique in which rates of wastage and other rates are incorporated into a
computerized model, and predictions made about required rates of
recruitment. But social scientists have pointed out that trends in statistics are
only the result of social processes.
The use of statistical techniques in human resource planning is largely the
concern of research organizations and government statisticians. However,
many organizations make use of analyses of labour turnover, labour stability
and similar ratios that in most cases have resulted in either high wage bill
because of over staffing or underemployment of the workforce.
It is now about time that Human Resource personnel should employ some of
the scientific techniques in manpower planning for a rational approach to the
demand and supply of labour to meet the organizations' objectives. Most
researchers would also concur with the fact that people are the most volatile
resource available to organizations, and they are recruited, employed and
rewarded against a complex background of economic and social forces, which
make firm decisions problematic for human resource planning
Citation
Master of Science in Social StatisticsSponsorhip
University of NairobiPublisher
Department of Mathematics, University of Nairobi,