| dc.description.abstract | This dissertation presents an estimate of the
economic value to Kenya residents of expenditures by
non-residents of East Africa visiting Kenya (tourists).
Economic Value of an activity is defined ai the contribution
of th at act i vi ty to the v aLu e of .le al th of th e pe r-s ons
concerned. Economic Value is distinct from political,
social and cultural consequences of an activity, which
other consequences may be equally or b.ore important to
residents.
Value of wealth is defined as the present value of
cons umption. Four "values of tourism" are c a Lc uLa t e d for
Kenya: (1) the increase in value of residents t Health if
visitor numbers and expenditures had continued at the same
levels as they had reached by 1967) compared \>lith a hypothetical
situation in which the country received no
t l' a v e 11 e 1'5 in the p as tor f ut u r-e ; (2) the re due t i on in the
--.
value of residents' wealth if visitors had ceased arriving
at the end of 1967 t compared with continuing at the 1967
rate; (3) the increment in the value of wealth from allowing
tourist numbers to expand on reasonable forecasts from
1967 to 1978, compared w i t h restraining visitors at their
1.967 level; and (4) the sum of (1) and (3).
Estimates of revenues and costs of tourism in 1966/7
and 1967 w e r-e made from analyses of questionnaires administered
to visitors depart ins Kenya, and to business firms
and government dep artmen ts de alin g VI i th t ouris t s • E xte nsive
use was also made of results of interviews with
representatives of firms and government and of analyses
of accounting records of particular firms. In the absence
of an input-output table for Kenya, government survey of
distribution (retain and wholesale trade) and of industrial
production were used to analyze 1965/7 tourist expenditures
into foreign exchange, labour remuneration, rent, depreciation,
and profit.
Various alternative assumptions are made about
gr owth and composition of future visitor f Lows , their
exp~nditures, the effects of possible future political
instability, and the costs of catering for tourists,'
demands up to 1978. After v a r Lous adjustments to take
account of distortions introduced between consumption
values and market prices by taxes, quantitative controls t
and price fixing (particuJ,arly rr i n i rnurn Hage laws and
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trade union agreements), the s t r-e arn of net change in
value of consumption due to tourisn is discounted at rates
of 10%, 20%, and 30% respectively. (Streams of consumpt.i..on
values are assumed to remain constant from 1978 to 1988.
The sensitivity of the estimates to using 1988 as the
time-horizon is checked.)
The main conclusion is that the economic value of
t ou r-Ls m to Kenya (on definition (4) above) is positive
even at a dis count rate of 30%. Under the m os t plausib Le
set of ass umpt ions, th e e con o mi c value of t ouris rn CODes to
3% of the value of all wealth of Kenya residents.
The final chapter r-e vLew s studies of the economic
impact of tourism to other countries, and contains a
criticism of the use of "tourism mu l t LpLde r-s !' , The value
of tourism to Kenya is co~pared with that to other tourist
destination countries. It is suggested that tourism will
have the greatest value (expressed as a percentage of
tourist receipts, say) in countries V1ith very unequal
distributions of income among residents, together with
progressive tax structures. While these characteristics
may be contradictory in the long run, in the medium term
they can co-exist. | en |
