Kenya's population projections and their implication on labour force
Abstract
This research aimed at examining the effect of population growth on the supply of
labour force in Kenya. Since this is a macro-level analysis only fertility and mortality
schedules are considered. This is because the contribution of the emigrants and
immigrants to the national labour force is negligible.
The primary objective of the study was to project the labour force by age and sex
and their differentials. Also the study aimed at providing indication of the number and
characteristics of the workers who will be available for employment in Kenya.
The study utilised the 1989 census data and the ILO activity rates. The projection
was done in three stages. First population projections were prepared for the total
population enumerated and graduated in 1989 census based on mortality and fertility
assumptions. Life expectancies at birth for mortality assumptions were used with all causes
'of death including and not including aids. Fertility was assumed to decline at slow, medium
and fast rates of 0.5,0.75 and 1.0 respectively from a total fertility rate of 5.5. The second
stage was projecting age specific activity rates using direct extrapolation method. The third
stage was the projection of labour force size broken down by age and sex.
The total labour force is expected to rise from 10 million in 1990 to around 17 million
in the year 2010 with all causes of death including Aids thereby showing an annual growth
rate of about 3.5 percent. Males and females are expected to grow from around 6 million
and 4 million to around 11 million and 6 million respectively
The study also utilised a life table technique to study magnitude and characteristic
of the entry into and separation from economically active population in 1989. An abridged
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life-table was used for this study. The study revealed that females at age ten can expect
to live 2 years longer than males but to work about 4 years less than males, but they
anticipate 5 more years of non-working life than males. The replacement indices showed
that males have lower replacement ratio than females but have higher replacement rate.
It was found that male replacement rate and replacement ratio were 63.5 per 1000 male
labour force and 201 respectively, while females were 59.8 per 1000 female labour force
and 217 respectively.
Citation
A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of master of science in population studies in the university of Nairobi (population studies and researchPublisher
Institute of population Studies and research